- The Padres (77-64) are -105 favorites vs the Mariners (79-61)
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (13-7), 3.30 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert (12-5), 3.22 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (-105) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-115) on Tuesday, September 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Padres vs Mariners Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 75-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 75-62 ATS.
Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | O 7 +100 | -105 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -200 | U 7 -120 | -115 |
Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Tuesday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 30 away games (+21.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 40 of his last 52 away games (+19.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 50 away games (+16.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 30 of his last 38 away games (+14.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.90 Units / 46% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 57 games at home (+13.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+10.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+10.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Abraham Toro has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
Mariners vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Mariners vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Mariners vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Mariners vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +115 |
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 24 away games (+3.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 away games (+1.65 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 60 games (+13.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 43 of their last 81 games (+9.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.50 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+5.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 61-77 against the Run Line (-21.15 Units / -12.39% ROI).
- 75-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.35 Units / -5.06% ROI
- 68-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -2.42% ROI
- 66-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.85 Units / -5.77% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 75-62 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 2.42% ROI).
- 78-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.5 Units / 9.07% ROI
- 63-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -6.39% ROI
- 67-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -1.22% ROI
Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (11/90) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (7/30) against Yu Darvish — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .161 (19-for-118) against Yu Darvish on low fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: .271 — 98th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .196 (377 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — 82nd Percentile.
Logan Gilbert: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (141/472) against Logan Gilbert this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% (73/196) against Logan Gilbert in two-strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .457 (32-for-70) against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .339 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (123/400) against Logan Gilbert on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres are just 8-142 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Padres are 151-16 (.904) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Padres are 71-26 (.732) when scoring in the first inning since the 2020 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .647.
The Padres are 24-14 (.632) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners are 32-15 (.681) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 161-54 (.749) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Mariners are 127-22 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2020 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Mariners are 77-16 (.828) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres hitters are slugging .239 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .217 at home since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Mariners are batting just .301 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Mariners are batting just .217 at home since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The Padres have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Padres pitchers this month (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 21 of 369 batters (6%) this month (10 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 25 of 444 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Oblique, D10
- Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Back, Day-to-Day
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, D7
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
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