- The Mariners (79-62) are -160 favorites vs the Padres (78-64)
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Clevinger (5-6), 4.13 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (6-5), 2.80 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (+135) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-160) on Wednesday, September 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Padres vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 76-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 75-62 ATS.
Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 -120 | +135 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 +100 | -160 |
Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Wednesday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 31 away games (+20.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 53 away games (+20.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 51 away games (+15.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 39 away games (+15.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 42 of his last 58 games at home (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+11.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Abraham Toro has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Mariners vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Mariners vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Mariners vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 -110 |
| Mike Clevinger | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 away games (+4.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 away games (+2.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 61 games (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 44 of their last 82 games (+10.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+6.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 61-77 against the Run Line (-21.15 Units / -12.39% ROI).
- 76-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.35 Units / -4.55% ROI
- 68-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.9 Units / -3.22% ROI
- 67-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.8 Units / -5.06% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 75-62 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 2.42% ROI).
- 78-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.35 Units / 8.34% ROI
- 63-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -7.16% ROI
- 68-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.8 Units / -0.52% ROI
Michael Clevinger: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mike Clevinger has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to August 23rd — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 12.
Opponents are hitting just .219 (14-for-64) against Mike Clevinger when he’s behind in the count this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .333 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .193 (34-for-176) against Mike Clevinger’s fastball this season — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .259 (44-for-170) against Mike Clevinger in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .328 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Castillo: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 77% (13/17) against Luis Castillo — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 48% (52 SO in 109 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 77% (13/17) against Luis Castillo this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (197/338) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres are 18-2 (.900) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
The Padres are 61-6 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .884.
The Padres are just 3-50 (.057) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners are 7-55 (.113) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Mariners are 52-8 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Mariners are 61-1 (.984) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mariners are 8-50 (.138) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .116.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Padres are batting just .229 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .349 (681 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .217 at home since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Padres pitchers this month (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Padres pitchers have walked 77 of 1,268 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 28 of 448 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Oblique, D10
- Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Back, Day-to-Day
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, D7
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
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