Padres vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 15

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 15, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (65-52) are -140 favorites vs the Marlins (50-65)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-5), 2.90 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (10-5), 2.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The San Diego Padres (-140) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+115) on Monday, August 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Padres vs Marlins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 65-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 51-64 ATS.

Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +125O 6.5 -105-140
Marlins +1.5 -155U 6.5 -115+115

Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s matchup with 56.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 40 away games (+21.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+17.75 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+15.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 away games (+14.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+14.05 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 23 games (+18.30 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 32 games at home (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+10.40 Units / 20% ROI)

Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
JJ Bleday 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Joey Wendle 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Jon Berti 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000

Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
JJ Bleday 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jacob Stallings 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Joey Wendle 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Jon Berti 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
JJ Bleday 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Joey Wendle 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jon Berti 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sandy Alcantara 5.5 +110 5.5 -155
Joe Musgrove 5.5 -115 5.5 -120
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 92 games (+12.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.40 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+12.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.50 Units / 19% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 55-62 against the Run Line (-9.95 Units / -6.84% ROI).

  • 65-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -1.96% ROI
  • 55-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -7.28% ROI
  • 59-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -1.57% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 51-64 against the Run Line (-23.3 Units / -15.1% ROI).

  • 50-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.8 Units / -14.32% ROI
  • 50-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -11.69% ROI
  • 59-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 3.57% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .190 (8-for-42) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .335 — 98th Percentile.

44% of Joe Musgrove’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 93rd Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has walked 5 of 91 batters (6%) with runners in scoring position this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 86th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .132 (10-for-76) against Joe Musgrove in late innings since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 97th Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (247/444) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (110/186) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .168 (29 Total Bases / 173 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — 93rd Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .199 (51-for-256) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 93rd Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Padres are 16-2 (.889) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Padres are 6-37 (.140) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Padres are 32-28 (.533) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Padres are 53-16 (.768) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Marlins are just 49-54 (.476) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Marlins are just 3-51 (.056) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Marlins are just 39-6 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Marlins are just 36-7 (.837) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

Padres hitters have an OBP of .385 (378 PA’s) against RHP this month (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Padres hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Padres hitters have an OBP of .323 (2,378 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .308.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Marlins hitters have 713 strikeouts in 2,575 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .590 (879 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .633 (2,575 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .286 (2,575 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.3

Padres pitchers have walked 61 of 1,047 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .192 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .182 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.

Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 64% of their games at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D60
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.