- The Padres (65-52) are -140 favorites vs the Marlins (50-65)
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-5), 2.90 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (10-5), 2.00 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The San Diego Padres (-140) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+115) on Monday, August 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Padres vs Marlins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 65-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 51-64 ATS.
Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | O 6.5 -105 | -140 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -155 | U 6.5 -115 | +115 |
Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s matchup with 56.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 40 away games (+21.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+17.75 Units / 65% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+15.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 away games (+14.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+14.05 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 23 games (+18.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 32 games at home (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+10.40 Units / 20% ROI)
Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 92 games (+12.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+12.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 55-62 against the Run Line (-9.95 Units / -6.84% ROI).
- 65-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -1.96% ROI
- 55-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -7.28% ROI
- 59-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -1.57% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 51-64 against the Run Line (-23.3 Units / -15.1% ROI).
- 50-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.8 Units / -14.32% ROI
- 50-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -11.69% ROI
- 59-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 3.57% ROI
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .190 (8-for-42) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .335 — 98th Percentile.
44% of Joe Musgrove’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 93rd Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has walked 5 of 91 batters (6%) with runners in scoring position this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 86th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .132 (10-for-76) against Joe Musgrove in late innings since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 97th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (247/444) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (110/186) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .168 (29 Total Bases / 173 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — 93rd Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .199 (51-for-256) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 93rd Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are 16-2 (.889) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Padres are 6-37 (.140) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Padres are 32-28 (.533) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Padres are 53-16 (.768) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 49-54 (.476) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins are just 3-51 (.056) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Marlins are just 39-6 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Marlins are just 36-7 (.837) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OBP of .385 (378 PA’s) against RHP this month (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Padres hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .323 (2,378 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 713 strikeouts in 2,575 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .590 (879 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .633 (2,575 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .286 (2,575 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.3
Padres pitchers have walked 61 of 1,047 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .192 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .182 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 64% of their games at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D60
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
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