Padres vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 16

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 16, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres (65-53) are -150 favorites vs the Marlins (51-65)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (6-6), 4.76 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera (3-1), 2.05 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The San Diego Padres (-150) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Tuesday, August 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Padres vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 65-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 52-64 ATS.

Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +115O 7 +105-150
Marlins +1.5 -140U 7 -125+125

Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 41 away games (+22.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+19.15 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 27 away games (+15.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+13.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.55 Units / 56% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 24 games (+19.30 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.05 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 32 games at home (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+10.40 Units / 20% ROI)

Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brian Anderson 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
JJ Bleday 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +450 0.5 -750
Miguel Rojas 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Peyton Burdick 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brian Anderson 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
JJ Bleday 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Miguel Rojas 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Peyton Burdick 0.5 -135 0.5 -105

Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brian Anderson 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
JJ Bleday 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Miguel Rojas 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Peyton Burdick 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Edward Cabrera 4.5 -110 4.5 -125
Sean Manaea 5.5 -140 5.5 +105
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 51 of their last 93 games (+13.05 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+2.65 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games (+13.85 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.10 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.50 Units / 26% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 55-63 against the Run Line (-10.95 Units / -7.48% ROI).

  • 65-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -2.78% ROI
  • 55-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -8.03% ROI
  • 60-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -0.8% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 52-64 against the Run Line (-22.3 Units / -14.31% ROI).

  • 51-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.55 Units / -13.32% ROI
  • 50-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -16 Units / -12.41% ROI
  • 60-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.5 Units / 4.33% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .128 (29-for-226) against Sean Manaea with two-strikes this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — 91st Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .263 (51-for-194) against Sean Manaea’s non-fastballs this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — eighth Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 29% (103/349) against Sean Manaea this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 86th Percentile.

Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .206 (26 Total Bases / 126 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — 97th Percentile.

Edward Cabrera: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 29 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from Edward Cabrera. — Jesse Chavez has the longest active streak at 35.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 77% (10/13) against Edward Cabrera — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Edward Cabrera has pitched 10.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Chris Bassitt has the longest active streak at 24.1.

Edward Cabrera has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 11.1 innings pitched — Edwin Diaz has the longest active streak at 21.1.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Padres are 33-24 (.579) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .531.

The Padres are 16-2 (.889) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Padres are 53-17 (.757) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Padres are 9-6 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Marlins are just 7-27 (.206) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.

The Marlins are just 37-7 (.841) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.

The Marlins are just 24-32 (.429) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.

The Marlins are just 6-38 (.136) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.

Padres hitters are slugging just .372 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .692 (3,067 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have drawn 294 walks in 3,067 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .495 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (2,580 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 249 strikeouts in 884 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have 715 strikeouts in 2,580 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres pitchers have walked 61 of 1,055 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Padres have won 42% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.3

Padres pitchers have walked 4 of 130 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (15 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Marlins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D60
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.