- The Padres (65-53) are -150 favorites vs the Marlins (51-65)
- Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (6-6), 4.76 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera (3-1), 2.05 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The San Diego Padres (-150) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Tuesday, August 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Padres vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 65-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 52-64 ATS.
Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +115 | O 7 +105 | -150 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -140 | U 7 -125 | +125 |
Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 41 away games (+22.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+19.15 Units / 67% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 27 away games (+15.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+13.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.55 Units / 56% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 24 games (+19.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 32 games at home (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+10.40 Units / 20% ROI)
Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -750 |
| Miguel Rojas | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Peyton Burdick | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Miguel Rojas | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Peyton Burdick | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Miguel Rojas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Peyton Burdick | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -125 |
| Sean Manaea | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 51 of their last 93 games (+13.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+2.65 Units / 3% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games (+13.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 55-63 against the Run Line (-10.95 Units / -7.48% ROI).
- 65-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -2.78% ROI
- 55-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -8.03% ROI
- 60-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -0.8% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 52-64 against the Run Line (-22.3 Units / -14.31% ROI).
- 51-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.55 Units / -13.32% ROI
- 50-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -16 Units / -12.41% ROI
- 60-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.5 Units / 4.33% ROI
Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .128 (29-for-226) against Sean Manaea with two-strikes this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .263 (51-for-194) against Sean Manaea’s non-fastballs this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 29% (103/349) against Sean Manaea this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 86th Percentile.
Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .206 (26 Total Bases / 126 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — 97th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 29 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from Edward Cabrera. — Jesse Chavez has the longest active streak at 35.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 77% (10/13) against Edward Cabrera — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has pitched 10.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Chris Bassitt has the longest active streak at 24.1.
Edward Cabrera has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 11.1 innings pitched — Edwin Diaz has the longest active streak at 21.1.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are 33-24 (.579) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Padres are 16-2 (.889) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Padres are 53-17 (.757) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Padres are 9-6 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 7-27 (.206) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Marlins are just 37-7 (.841) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.
The Marlins are just 24-32 (.429) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Marlins are just 6-38 (.136) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .372 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .692 (3,067 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have drawn 294 walks in 3,067 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .495 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (2,580 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 249 strikeouts in 884 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 715 strikeouts in 2,580 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 61 of 1,055 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Padres have won 42% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.3
Padres pitchers have walked 4 of 130 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (15 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Marlins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D60
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
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