- The Marlins are -135 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-135) on Monday, July 21, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Padres are 54-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 58-40 ATS.
Padres vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 3-4, 3.85 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 3-2, 3.18 ERA
Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 -115 | +110 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -105 | -135 |
Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+18.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+16.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+15.10 Units / 151% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+14.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Randy Vasquez has hit the Strikeouts Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.10 Units / 181% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+14.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Dane Myers has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.70 Units / 32% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 57 games (+20.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 85 games (+11.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 away games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.55 Units / 66% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.55 Units / 44% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games (+16.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+13.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 79 games (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+10.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 53-46 against the Run Line (+3.65 Units / 2.87% ROI).
- 54-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 2.08% ROI
- 41-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.15 Units / -17.63% ROI
- 55-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.8 Units / 8.96% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 58-40 against the Run Line (+9.05 Units / 6.9% ROI).
- 46-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.05 Units / 6.82% ROI
- 47-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.9 Units / -8.18% ROI
- 50-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.65 Units / -1.54% ROI
Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Vasquez (SD) | 2.5 -115 | 2.5 -115 |
| Eury Perez (MIA) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez has a strikeout rate of just 9% (16 SO in 171 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .097 (3-for-31) against Randy Vasquez’s low fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .280 — 98th Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has a strikeout rate of just 27% (50 SO in 189 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has struck out just 9% (37/411) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .067 (2-for-30) against Eury Perez this month (3 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .103 (6-for-58) against Eury Perez this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Eury Perez has a strikeout rate of 35% (21 SO in 60 PAs) this month (3 games) — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Eury Perez has allowed an OBP of just .079 (38 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are 9-33 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Padres are 15-2 (.882) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Padres are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Padres are 25-16 (.610) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 71-18 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .864.
The Marlins are just 105-130 (.447) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 33-48 (.407) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Padres (Ranks 25th runs scored) today.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres have scored first in 85% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .190 against LHP this month (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .401 (148 PA’s) against LHP this month (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Marlins hitters had an OPS of just .638 (1,976 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Marlins are batting just .153 against LHP this month (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 15% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 33% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 53% of the time since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 5% of batters this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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