- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Padres vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL.
This season, the Padres are 55-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 58-42 ATS.
Padres vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 3-9, 4.69 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 4-9, 7.18 ERA
Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +115 | O 8 -118 | -145 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -140 | U 8 -102 | +120 |
Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+15.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+14.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Walks Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+17.55 Units / 62% ROI)
- Dane Myers has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+10.80 Units / 108% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 52% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 59 games (+20.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 87 games (+13.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 away games (+11.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.75 Units / 37% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 36 games (+15.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 63 games (+15.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games at home (+12.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 81 games (+11.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+8.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 55-46 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 4.32% ROI).
- 55-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 2.21% ROI
- 41-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.4 Units / -19.3% ROI
- 57-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.8 Units / 10.58% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 58-42 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 5.29% ROI).
- 47-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.65 Units / 6.27% ROI
- 47-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.15 Units / -10.05% ROI
- 52-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 0.32% ROI
Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 52% of the time (190/367) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 54% of the time (197/367) when behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 58% of the time (532/921) against right-handed batters this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (1,041/1,899) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .333 (8-for-24) against Sandy Alcantara with two-strikes in his last two starts — tied for highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .152 — second Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed 24 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed an OBP of .449 (136 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .317 — first Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 22 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are 9-34 (.209) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .122.
The Padres are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Padres are just 3-29 (.094) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Padres are 27-18 (.600) after a loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 72-18 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .864.
The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Marlins are just 106-131 (.447) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres have scored first in 85% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have chased 42% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .390 (157 PA’s) against LHP this month (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .347 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .185 against LHP this month (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Marlins are batting just .151 against LHP this month (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 15% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Marlins pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 40% of the time over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
More MLB Reading:
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