• The Marlins are -140 favorites vs the Padres
• Padres vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Padres / Marlins TV Channel: FS1 | MATV | PDTV

The San Diego Padres (+115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-140) on July 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Padres are 51-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 53-50 ATS.

Padres vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: JP Sears 2-3, 4.38 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 5-7, 3.55 ERA

Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Padres vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+22.20 Units / 222% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+11.35 Units / 112% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.30 Units / 35% ROI)
• Ty France has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 43% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Joe Mack has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+17.30 Units / 432% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.00 Units / 43% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.15 Units / 50% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 away games (+4.15 Units / 7% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.60 Units / 12% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+11.50 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+9.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+9.10 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 games (+7.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+7.25 Units / 15% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 55-47 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 1.19% ROI).

• 51-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -3.88% ROI
• 47-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.45 Units / -11.71% ROI
• 55-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 3.24% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 53-50 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -3.08% ROI).

• 52-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.29% ROI
• 53-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.13% ROI
• 48-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -10 Units / -8.79% ROI

Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Padres are 41-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .948.

The Padres are 38-1 (.974) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .904.

The Padres are 11-5 (.688) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are 38-1 (.974) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .904.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Marlins are just 9-22 (.290) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .371.

The Marlins are 28-4 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .752.

The Marlins are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.

The Marlins are just 1-45 (.022) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .653 (1,835 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging just .351 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .663 (917 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters have an OBP of just .303 (1,835 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have an OPS of .530 (1,993 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .287 this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 39% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 35% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Padres pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .269 against Padres pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 67% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 557 times this season — 5th fewest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .229 against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

Opponents are hitting just .229 against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.32 (471.2 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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