- The – are favorites vs the –
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres () visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins () on Thursday, June 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Miami.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Padres vs Marlins Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 25-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 23-33 ATS.
Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | O | ||
| Marlins | U |
Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 57.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+11.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 11 games (+11.55 Units / 76% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+9.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+8.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.20 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+9.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+8.70 Units / 78% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+8.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Joe Musgrove | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 48 games (+18.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+4.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+9.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+8.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+7.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 games (+5.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+4.20 Units / 13% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 27-28 against the Run Line (-6.65 Units / -9.24% ROI).
- 25-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.3 Units / -19.37% ROI
- 18-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.65 Units / -34.86% ROI
- 35-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.6 Units / 26.35% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 23-33 against the Run Line (-17 Units / -22.52% ROI).
- 29-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.1 Units / 3.22% ROI
- 24-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.8 Units / -14.25% ROI
- 30-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.8 Units / 6.17% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has walked 1 of 49 batters (2%) — 6th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — 94th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.4 MPH on inside pitches since last season (208 balls in play) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 85.6
Joe Musgrove’s K:BB ratio is 12.0 (12/1) — 5th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 2.8 — 95th Percentile.
67% of Joe Musgrove’s called strikeouts are inside this season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 96th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (21 Total Bases / 28 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .372 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has induced opposing hitters to ground into 9 double plays in 33 opportunities (27%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .411 (23-for-56) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .251 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (25/65) against Jesus Luzardo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are 10-1 (.909) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Padres are just 5-27 (.156) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Padres are 5-5 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are just 21-4 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .903.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 69-18 (.793) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Marlins are just 10-51 (.164) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Marlins are just 76-12 (.864) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Marlins are just 7-8 (.467) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .674.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 177 walks in 1,434 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .204 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters have drawn 233 walks in 2,065 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .210 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have grounded into 62 double plays in 384 opportunities (16%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have 42 extra-base hits out of 183 total hits (just 23%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (1,832 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .655 (3,528 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 34% of their games this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.0 MPH (1,354 batted balls) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres have won 37% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 54 of 475 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Andrew Puk (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Luis GarcÃa (Padres): Oblique, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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