Padres vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 30, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Marlins are -135 favorites vs the Padres
  • Padres starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The San Diego Padres (+115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-135) on Tuesday, May 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Padres vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

This season, the Padres are 24-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 22-32 ATS.

Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -175O 8 +100+115
Marlins -1.5 +145U 8 -120-135

Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 61.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.55 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.55 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.70 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games at home (+8.50 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Nick Fortes has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jon Berti has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.20 Units / 30% ROI)

Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jorge Soler 0.5 +290 0.5 -450
Jon Berti 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Yuli Gurriel 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000

Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jorge Soler 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jon Berti 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Garrett Cooper 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Yuli Gurriel 0.5 -225 0.5 +170

Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jorge Soler 0.5 +125 0.5 -160
Jon Berti 0.5 +185 0.5 -250
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +140 0.5 -190
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 +210 0.5 -275
Yuli Gurriel 0.5 +185 0.5 -250

Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sandy Alcantara 5.5 -150 5.5 +115
Ryan Weathers 3.5 +115 3.5 -150
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 46 games (+18.85 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+4.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.20 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+8.55 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 43 games (+5.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 26-27 against the Run Line (-6.65 Units / -9.59% ROI).

  • 24-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.3 Units / -19.92% ROI
  • 17-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.55 Units / -36.07% ROI
  • 34-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.6 Units / 27.32% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 22-32 against the Run Line (-17 Units / -23.34% ROI).

  • 28-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 3.98% ROI
  • 23-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.7 Units / -14.65% ROI
  • 29-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.8 Units / 6.39% ROI

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 25% (17/68) against Ryan Weathers against right-handed batters this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.

Ryan Weathers has thrown his changeup 33% of the time (123/369) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total CH; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 12% (2/16) against Ryan Weathers in late innings this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 30% — sixth Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (24/85) against Ryan Weathers this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 99th Percentile.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (189/267) in two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 31 times since last season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 68% (646/955) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 88th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of 41% (108/263) against Sandy Alcantara on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Padres are just 5-26 (.161) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Padres are 19-3 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .788.

The Padres are just 2-23 (.080) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .134.

The Padres are 9-1 (.900) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .734.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Marlins are just 11-10 (.524) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.

The Marlins are just 29-22 (.569) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.

The Marlins are just 2-23 (.080) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.

The Marlins are just 11-76 (.126) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.

The Padres are batting just .221 this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Padres hitters have drawn 169 walks in 1,386 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Padres are batting just .204 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Padres are batting just .205 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .291 (1,782 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .652 (1,782 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.

Marlins hitters have grounded into 56 double plays in 361 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 34% of their games this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Padres pitchers have walked 22 of 403 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (1,328 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.

Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Marlins pitchers have walked 33 of 231 batters (14%) over the past seven days (6 games) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Marlins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
  • Andrew Puk (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
  • Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
  • José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Luis García (Padres): Oblique, D15
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
  • Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
  • Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.