- The Marlins are -135 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Watch the game on BSFL
The San Diego Padres (+115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-135) on Tuesday, May 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Padres vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 24-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 22-32 ATS.
Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -175 | O 8 +100 | +115 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -120 | -135 |
Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 61.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.55 Units / 78% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.70 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games at home (+8.50 Units / 92% ROI)
- Nick Fortes has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Ryan Weathers | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 46 games (+18.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+4.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+8.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 43 games (+5.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 26-27 against the Run Line (-6.65 Units / -9.59% ROI).
- 24-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.3 Units / -19.92% ROI
- 17-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.55 Units / -36.07% ROI
- 34-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.6 Units / 27.32% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 22-32 against the Run Line (-17 Units / -23.34% ROI).
- 28-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 3.98% ROI
- 23-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.7 Units / -14.65% ROI
- 29-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.8 Units / 6.39% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 25% (17/68) against Ryan Weathers against right-handed batters this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has thrown his changeup 33% of the time (123/369) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total CH; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 12% (2/16) against Ryan Weathers in late innings this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 30% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (24/85) against Ryan Weathers this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (189/267) in two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 31 times since last season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 68% (646/955) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 88th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 41% (108/263) against Sandy Alcantara on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are just 5-26 (.161) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Padres are 19-3 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Padres are just 2-23 (.080) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Padres are 9-1 (.900) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 11-10 (.524) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Marlins are just 29-22 (.569) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Marlins are just 2-23 (.080) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Marlins are just 11-76 (.126) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .221 this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Padres hitters have drawn 169 walks in 1,386 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .204 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Padres are batting just .205 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .291 (1,782 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .652 (1,782 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 56 double plays in 361 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 34% of their games this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres pitchers have walked 22 of 403 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (1,328 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 33 of 231 batters (14%) over the past seven days (6 games) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Andrew Puk (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Luis GarcÃa (Padres): Oblique, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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