- The Marlins are -135 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Watch the game on BSFL
The San Diego Padres (+115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-135) on Tuesday, May 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Padres vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 24-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 22-32 ATS.
Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Padres | +1.5 -175 | O 8 +100 | +115 |
Marlins | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -120 | -135 |
Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 61.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.55 Units / 78% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.70 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games at home (+8.50 Units / 92% ROI)
- Nick Fortes has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jorge Soler | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
Jon Berti | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jorge Soler | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Jon Berti | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jorge Soler | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
Jon Berti | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
Ryan Weathers | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 46 games (+18.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+4.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+8.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 43 games (+5.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 26-27 against the Run Line (-6.65 Units / -9.59% ROI).
- 24-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.3 Units / -19.92% ROI
- 17-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.55 Units / -36.07% ROI
- 34-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.6 Units / 27.32% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 22-32 against the Run Line (-17 Units / -23.34% ROI).
- 28-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 3.98% ROI
- 23-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.7 Units / -14.65% ROI
- 29-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.8 Units / 6.39% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 25% (17/68) against Ryan Weathers against right-handed batters this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has thrown his changeup 33% of the time (123/369) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total CH; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 12% (2/16) against Ryan Weathers in late innings this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 30% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (24/85) against Ryan Weathers this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (189/267) in two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 31 times since last season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 68% (646/955) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 88th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 41% (108/263) against Sandy Alcantara on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are just 5-26 (.161) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Padres are 19-3 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Padres are just 2-23 (.080) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Padres are 9-1 (.900) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 11-10 (.524) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Marlins are just 29-22 (.569) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Marlins are just 2-23 (.080) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Marlins are just 11-76 (.126) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .221 this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Padres hitters have drawn 169 walks in 1,386 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .204 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Padres are batting just .205 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .291 (1,782 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .652 (1,782 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 56 double plays in 361 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 34% of their games this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres pitchers have walked 22 of 403 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (1,328 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 33 of 231 batters (14%) over the past seven days (6 games) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Andrew Puk (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Luis GarcÃa (Padres): Oblique, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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