- The – are favorites vs the –
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres () visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets () on Wednesday, April 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Padres vs Mets Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 7-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 7-5 ATS.
Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | O | ||
| Mets | U |
Padres vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+9.40 Units / 102% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+6.15 Units / 77% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 90% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Mets vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Mets vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Mets vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.32 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 41% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 7-5 against the Run Line (+1.1 Units / 6.61% ROI).
- 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -1.13% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.8 Units / -5.86% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -3.13% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 7-5 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 24.46% ROI).
- 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -9.24% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -4.87% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -3.83% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 55% (206/374) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell had a strike rate of just 57% (443/770) over the last 30 days of the regular season (8 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 44% (28/63) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 11 of 65 right-handed batters (17%) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 45% (17/38) of opposing batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill has a strike rate of just 54% (76/141) in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 32% (45/141) against Tylor Megill in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 65% (13/20) against Tylor Megill this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 97th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres were 16-17 (.485) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 in 2022 — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Padres are 26-13 (.667) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Padres are 137-15 (.901) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Padres were 23-24 (.489) when underdogs in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mets were 89-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets were 38-28 (.576) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Mets are 94-3 (.969) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Mets are just 11-29 (.275) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .385 against LHP since the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Padres hitters have just 767 strikeouts in 3,711 PA’s (21%) against LHP since the 2021 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Padres are batting just .230 at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 890 strikeouts in 4,540 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .154 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mets hitters have drawn 33 walks in 246 PA’s (13%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Padres pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Padres pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 187 of 2,939 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D10
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
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