• The Mets are -120 favorites vs the Padres
• Padres vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Padres / Mets TV Channel: PDTV | SNY

The San Diego Padres (+100) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-120) on August 17, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Padres are against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are ATS.

Padres vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 7-5, 4.93 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Nolan McLean 8-8, 3.42 ERA

Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Padres vs Mets and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+17.50 Units / 438% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+14.45 Units / 58% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+13.75 Units / 54% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.70 Units / 50% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.55 Units / 42% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+9.50 Units / 119% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 58% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.75 Units / 32% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.15 Units / 40% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.40 Units / 22% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.60 Units / 19% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 50 games (+17.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+8.10 Units / 44% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+7.85 Units / 49% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.90 Units / 52% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 45 games at home (+5.20 Units / 10% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Mets vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Padres are 8-3 (.727) this season — tied for best in MLB.

The Padres are 8-3 (.727) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Padres are 5-3 (.625) after a win this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

The Padres are 8-3 (.727) since the 2025 season — tied for best in MLB.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mets are 8-2 (.800) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB.

The Mets are 6-2 (.750) after a win this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Mets are 8-3 (.727) this season — tied for best in MLB.

The Mets are 8-2 (.800) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

The Padres are batting .252 with two outs this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Padres hitters have grounded into 99 double plays in 817 opportunities (12%) this season — highest in MLB.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .684 (1,164 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging just .367 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .307 (3,382 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters are slugging just .524 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .307 (4,699 PA’s) this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have 34 extra-base hits out of 129 total hits (just 26%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Padres pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB.

The Padres have allowed 1.10 runs per game (138/125) in late innings this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Padres pitchers have won 32% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 68% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have 210 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd most in MLB.

The Mets pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 59% of their games this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% versus the bottom of the order this season — 3rd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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