Padres vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 22

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 22, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (58-35) are -175 favorites vs the Padres (52-42)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (8-4), 3.40 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (6-1), 2.21 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The San Diego Padres (+145) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-175) on Friday, July 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Padres vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 52-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 49-44 ATS.

Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -150O 7 -110+145
Mets -1.5 +125U 7 -110-175

Padres vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s matchup with 60.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 43 away games (+12.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.20 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 24 games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.75 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games at home (+16.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+12.85 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games at home (+12.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)

Mets vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Luis Guillorme 0.5 +1100 0.5

Mets vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Luis Guillorme 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Mets vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Luis Guillorme 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Mets vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Scherzer 7.5 -110 7.5 -120
Yu Darvish 5.5 +115 5.5 -165
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 47 away games (+9.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 69 games (+7.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 59 games (+6.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 47 away games (+5.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 37 games at home (+19.97 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 93 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+11.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 59 games (+7.85 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 44-50 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -5.53% ROI).

  • 52-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.57% ROI
  • 42-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -12.1% ROI
  • 50-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.5 Units / 3.34% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 49-44 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 4.24% ROI).

  • 58-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.1 Units / 11.45% ROI
  • 47-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 2.76% ROI
  • 40-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.05 Units / -10.87% ROI

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .075 (4 Total Bases / 53 ABs) on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .352 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .100 (5-for-50) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .110 (10-for-91) against Yu Darvish on low fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: .274 — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .121 (4-for-33) against Yu Darvish on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .271 — 98th Percentile.

Maxwell Scherzer: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Scherzer has struck out 37% (180/486) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 10% (2/20) against Max Scherzer — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Max Scherzer has a strikeout rate of 74% (31 SO in 42 PAs) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .219 (485 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 100th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Padres are 8-6 (.571) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are 43-12 (.782) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Padres are 27-21 (.562) on the road this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Padres are 14-4 (.778) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mets are 28-15 (.651) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Mets are 41-4 (.911) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Mets are 30-20 (.600) on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Mets are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

Padres hitters are slugging just .339 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .642 (1,673 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Padres hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Padres are batting just .223 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Mets have scored first in 74% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Mets are batting .187 with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .169.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .272 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .216.

Mets hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Padres pitchers have walked 51 of 845 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.3

The Padres have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Padres pitchers have walked 21 of 155 batters (14%) over the past seven days (4 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes this month (17 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% this month (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.