Padres vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 23

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 23, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (58-36) are -150 favorites vs the Padres (53-42)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell (1-5), 5.22 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (7-6), 3.79 ERA
  • Watch the game on WPIX

The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-150) on Saturday, July 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Padres vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 53-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 49-45 ATS.

Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -165O 7.5 -105+125
Mets -1.5 +140U 7.5 -115-150

Padres vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 74.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+14.40 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 44 away games (+13.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.20 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 32 away games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 28 games at home (+18.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+13.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 28 games at home (+13.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 36 games at home (+11.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+9.40 Units / 14% ROI)

Mets vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
J.D. Davis 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Mets vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
J.D. Davis 0.5 -115 0.5 -120
Mark Canha 0.5 -155 0.5 +110

Mets vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
J.D. Davis 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Mark Canha 0.5 +195 0.5 -300

Mets vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Bassitt 5.5 +105 5.5 -145
Blake Snell 6.5 -130 6.5 -110
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 48 away games (+10.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 70 games (+8.85 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+7.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 away games (+7.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 away games (+0.25 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+18.77 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 94 games (+13.20 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+10.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 60 games (+6.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 56 games (+6.75 Units / 11% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 45-50 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -4.61% ROI).

  • 53-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 0.68% ROI
  • 42-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.45 Units / -12.99% ROI
  • 51-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 4.25% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 49-45 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 3.31% ROI).

  • 58-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.2 Units / 9.87% ROI
  • 47-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 1.73% ROI
  • 41-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -9.78% ROI

Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 59% (1,543/2,596) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 41 of 210 batters (20%) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 18 of 64 batters (28%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 31 of 224 batters (14%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Christopher Bassitt: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Chris Bassitt has allowed a just .311 SLG vs right-handed batters (ninth best)– 87th Percentile and .478 vs left-handed batters this season (fifth worst among qualified SPs)– 10th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (45/281) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (37/225) against Chris Bassitt on pitches in the strike zone this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Chris Bassitt has averaged 77.0 MPH on sliders since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — second Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Padres are 6-29 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Padres are 28-21 (.571) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Padres are 8-6 (.571) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are just 43-5 (.896) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mets are 49-3 (.942) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mets are 30-20 (.600) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Mets are 49-5 (.907) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Mets are 19-5 (.792) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .642 (1,673 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

The Padres are batting just .223 at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Mets have scored first in 73% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .272 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .217.

Mets hitters have just 488 strikeouts in 2,448 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets hitters have 194 extra-base hits out of 622 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.3

The Padres have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Padres pitchers have walked 51 of 854 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (18 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets pitchers have walked 144 of 2,225 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.