- The Mets (0-0) are -150 favorites vs the Padres (0-0)
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (-), – ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (-), – ERA
- Watch the game on ESPN
The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-150) on Friday, October 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:07pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Padres vs Mets Over/Under is 6 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 89-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 87-75 ATS.
Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | O 6 +100 | +125 |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | U 6 -120 | -150 |
Padres vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 59 away games (+12.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 64 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+11.40 Units / 43% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 44 of his last 60 games (+24.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 58 of his last 77 games (+20.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 46 games at home (+19.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 44 of his last 69 games (+18.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 42 games at home (+14.60 Units / 33% ROI)
Mets vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Mets vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Mets vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Mets vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -115 |
| Yu Darvish | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 away games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 55 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 away games (+6.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 away games (+5.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 65 away games (+4.55 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- No trends found
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 72-89 against the Run Line (-22.85 Units / -11.46% ROI).
- 89-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.2 Units / -5.39% ROI
- 75-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.45 Units / -8.13% ROI
- 82-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.28% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 87-75 against the Run Line (+10.35 Units / 5.11% ROI).
- 101-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 1.79% ROI
- 86-69 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.85 Units / 5.5% ROI
- 69-86 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.45 Units / -14.31% ROI
Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .156 (67-for-429) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (11/94) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has at least 6 strikeouts in each of his last nine games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents are hitting just .164 (82-for-499) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 100th Percentile.
Maxwell Scherzer: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 36% (484/1,346) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.8 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (121 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 89.6
Max Scherzer has allowed an OPS of just .539 (648 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .712 — 98th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .224 (647 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are 45-36 (.556) on the road this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Padres are 73-25 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Padres are 31-9 (.775) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Padres are just 3-58 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mets are 88-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are 43-11 (.796) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Mets are 47-34 (.580) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Mets are 51-7 (.879) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .363 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of 1.004 (162 PA’s) in the first 3 innings over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Mets are batting .265 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have just 377 strikeouts in 1,900 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have walked 92 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 35% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets pitchers have walked 7 of 203 batters (3%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Michael Clevinger (Padres): Illness, D15
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