Padres vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 7

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 07, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Mets (0-0) are -150 favorites vs the Padres (0-0)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (-), ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-150) on Friday, October 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:07pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Padres vs Mets Over/Under is 6 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 89-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 87-75 ATS.

Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -190O 6 +100+125
Mets -1.5 +155U 6 -120-150

Padres vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Padres and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 59 away games (+12.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 64 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+11.40 Units / 43% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 44 of his last 60 games (+24.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 58 of his last 77 games (+20.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 46 games at home (+19.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 44 of his last 69 games (+18.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 42 games at home (+14.60 Units / 33% ROI)

Mets vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +500 0.5 -1200
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000

Mets vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Mets vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

Mets vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Scherzer 5.5 -120 5.5 -115
Yu Darvish 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 away games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 55 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 away games (+6.15 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 away games (+5.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 65 away games (+4.55 Units / 6% ROI)
  • No trends found

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 72-89 against the Run Line (-22.85 Units / -11.46% ROI).

  • 89-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.2 Units / -5.39% ROI
  • 75-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.45 Units / -8.13% ROI
  • 82-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.28% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 87-75 against the Run Line (+10.35 Units / 5.11% ROI).

  • 101-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 1.79% ROI
  • 86-69 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.85 Units / 5.5% ROI
  • 69-86 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.45 Units / -14.31% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .156 (67-for-429) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (11/94) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has at least 6 strikeouts in each of his last nine games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opponents are hitting just .164 (82-for-499) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 100th Percentile.

Maxwell Scherzer: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 36% (484/1,346) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.

Max Scherzer has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.8 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (121 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 89.6

Max Scherzer has allowed an OPS of just .539 (648 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .712 — 98th Percentile.

Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .224 (647 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Padres are 45-36 (.556) on the road this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .467.

The Padres are 73-25 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Padres are 31-9 (.775) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Padres are just 3-58 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mets are 88-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mets are 43-11 (.796) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Mets are 47-34 (.580) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .467.

The Mets are 51-7 (.879) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.

Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .363 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Mets hitters have an OPS of 1.004 (162 PA’s) in the first 3 innings over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Mets are batting .265 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.

The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have just 377 strikeouts in 1,900 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Padres pitchers have walked 92 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 35% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Mets pitchers have walked 7 of 203 batters (3%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Michael Clevinger (Padres): Illness, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.