Padres vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 9

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Mets (1-1) are -145 favorites vs the Padres (1-1)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (-), ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The San Diego Padres (+120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-145) on Sunday, October 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Padres vs Mets Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 90-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 88-76 ATS.

Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -190O 6.5 +100+120
Mets -1.5 +155U 6.5 -120-145

Padres vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Padres and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+14.25 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.75 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 61 away games (+12.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Mike Clevinger has hit the Strikeouts Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.10 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 44 games (+9.55 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 47 of his last 64 games (+26.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 61 of his last 82 games (+18.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 38 of his last 64 games (+15.85 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 45 of his last 74 games (+14.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.90 Units / 52% ROI)

Mets vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000

Mets vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Mets vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Mets vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joe Musgrove 4.5 -120 4.5 -115
Chris Bassitt 3.5 -175 3.5 +120
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 73 of their last 139 games (+13.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 49 away games (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 away games (+5.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 36 away games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 77 games at home (+24.27 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 126 games (+16.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+12.95 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 164 games (+10.75 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+5.35 Units / 9% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 74-90 against the Run Line (-22.45 Units / -10.98% ROI).

  • 90-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.7 Units / -5.15% ROI
  • 77-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.45 Units / -6.92% ROI
  • 82-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -1.46% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 88-76 against the Run Line (+10.75 Units / 5.26% ROI).

  • 102-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 1.54% ROI
  • 88-69 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.85 Units / 6.53% ROI
  • 69-88 when betting on the total runs Under for -27.6 Units / -15.33% ROI

Left-handed batters are hitting just .071 (2-for-28) against Joe Musgrove — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .234 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .250 (17-for-68) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .337 — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (190/739) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — sixth Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.4 MPH this season (490 balls in play) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 88.6

Christopher Bassitt: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (91/515) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.3 MPH on the 192 breaking pitches put in play against him since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 87.2.

Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.7 MPH this season (511 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 88.6

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 26% (343/1,346) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Padres are 46-37 (.554) on the road this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Mets are 88-5 (.946) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Mets are 51-7 (.879) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

The Padres are batting just .236 at home since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Mets hitters have an OPS of .967 (189 PA’s) in the first 3 innings over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Mets are batting .265 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .239.

Mets hitters have just 382 strikeouts in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets are batting .447 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Padres pitchers have walked 11 of 80 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have walked 174 of 2,843 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Michael Clevinger (Padres): Illness, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.