- The Padres (64-51) are -300 favorites vs the Nationals (37-77)
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (10-5), 3.28 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Aníbal Sánchez (0-5), 7.56 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The San Diego Padres (-300) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+240) on Saturday, August 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-115).
The Padres vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 64-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 47-67 ATS.
Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -2.5 -115 | O 8.5 +100 | -300 |
| Nationals | +2.5 -105 | U 8.5 -120 | +240 |
Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 38 away games (+19.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+14.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+14.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 43 games (+14.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+14.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 44 games (+11.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 34 games (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+9.45 Units / 32% ROI)
Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -125 |
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 48 of their last 90 games (+10.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 57 away games (+4.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 57 away games (+3.45 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 61 of their last 101 games (+21.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+8.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games at home (+1.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 54-61 against the Run Line (-8.95 Units / -6.31% ROI).
- 64-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -0.58% ROI
- 55-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -5.65% ROI
- 57-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -3.16% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 47-67 against the Run Line (-29.1 Units / -20.81% ROI).
- 37-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.9 Units / -20.2% ROI
- 57-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.05 Units / 1.62% ROI
- 50-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -12 Units / -9.63% ROI
Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .062 (4 Total Bases / 64 ABs) on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .357 — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .150 (160 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .274 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .100 (6-for-60) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .183 (35-for-191) against Yu Darvish’s non-fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — 86th Percentile.
Aníbal Sánchez: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Anibal Sanchez has allowed a slugging percentage of .739 (17 Total Bases / 23 ABs) against right-handed batters this month (2 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — third Percentile.
Anibal Sanchez has allowed an OPS of 1.184 (27 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (2 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .678 — third Percentile.
Anibal Sanchez has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to September 26th, 2020 — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 8.
Anibal Sanchez has a strikeout rate of just 18% (5 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are 31-27 (.534) on the road this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Padres are 52-15 (.776) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Padres are 9-6 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 21-8 (.724) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .667.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 17-41 (.293) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are just 104-24 (.812) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Nationals are just 105-16 (.868) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Nationals are just 65-104 (.385) at home since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,446 of their 4,403 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have drawn 293 walks in 3,056 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have grounded into 266 double plays in 2,037 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 29% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .330 (5,293 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .340 (3,159 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.3
Padres pitchers have walked 61 of 1,030 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Padres have won 44% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres pitchers have won 39% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.31 (994.0 IP) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.94 (468.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
Nationals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Erick Fedde (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
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