- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Padres vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-145) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+118) on Friday, July 18, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Padres are 52-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 47-49 ATS.
Padres vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 3-9, 4.91 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 4-8, 3.06 ERA
Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +118 | O 8.5 -118 | -145 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -145 | U 8.5 -102 | +118 |
Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 60.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+16.30 Units / 65% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+14.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+14.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jacob Young has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.35 Units / 71% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 48% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 54 games (+19.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+12.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.80 Units / 22% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 21 games (+12.65 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games (+12.59 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+9.82 Units / 12% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 51-45 against the Run Line (+2.1 Units / 1.69% ROI).
- 52-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 1.63% ROI
- 39-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -20 Units / -18.99% ROI
- 54-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +11 Units / 10.37% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 47-49 against the Run Line (-11.15 Units / -8.99% ROI).
- 38-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.72 Units / -12.38% ROI
- 50-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 3.74% ROI
- 42-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.85 Units / -12.18% ROI
Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Nationals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
| Michael Soroka (WAS) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (188/345) when behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 53% of the time (181/345) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 98th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (188/345) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (63/164) against Dylan Cease on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 51% (66 SO in 130 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .538 (21 GB hits out of 39 GBs) against MacKenzie Gore with runners on base this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .255 — 0 Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 51% (138 SO in 271 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 87th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 30% (138 SO in 453 PAs) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Padres are 9-32 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Padres are 56-15 (.789) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Padres are 14-2 (.875) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 8-21 (.276) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Padres (Ranks sixth runs allowed) today.
The Nationals are just 36-51 (.409) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 23-34 (.404) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Nationals are just 37-58 (.385) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres have scored first in 85% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Nationals are batting just .316 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 15% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres pitchers have walked 11% of batters over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Nationals have allowed 1.97 runs per game (189/96) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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