- The Padres are -140 favorites vs the Nationals
- Padres vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | PDTV | KFMB
The San Diego Padres (-140) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+115) on Saturday, July 19, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, D.C., DC.
This season, the Padres are 53-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 47-50 ATS.
Padres vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 0-1, 6.49 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 5-10, 5.11 ERA
Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +120 | O 9 -105 | -140 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -145 | U 9 -115 | +115 |
Padres vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+15.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+14.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+10.40 Units / 130% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Mitchell Parker has hit the Earned Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 38% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 55 games (+20.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 83 games (+11.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 away games (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.90 Units / 71% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games (+13.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+13.59 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 71 games (+10.87 Units / 13% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 52-45 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 2.64% ROI).
- 53-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 2.4% ROI
- 40-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -19 Units / -17.86% ROI
- 54-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.9 Units / 9.24% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 47-50 against the Run Line (-12.55 Units / -10.01% ROI).
- 38-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.72 Units / -13.23% ROI
- 51-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.95 Units / 4.63% ROI
- 42-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.95 Units / -13.08% ROI
Nationals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Nationals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Nationals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish (SD) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -160 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 59% of the time (429/727) when he’s behind in the count since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total SL; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 67% of the time (484/727) when behind in the count since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish had a strike rate of just 55% (46/83) in his last start — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 16% (6/38) against Yu Darvish in his last start — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of just 15% (66 SO in 450 PAs) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (49/306) against Mitchell Parker this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .167 (9-for-54) against Mitchell Parker’s low fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .267 — 96th Percentile.
13 of Mitchell Parker’s 33 breaking pitch strikeouts (39%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are 9-32 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Padres are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Padres are 50-15 (.769) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Padres are 14-2 (.875) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 17-29 (.362) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .549.
The Nationals are just 8-22 (.267) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Padres (Ranks sixth runs allowed) today.
The Nationals are just 31-122 (.203) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.
The Nationals are just 31-52 (.373) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Padres (Ranks sixth runs allowed) today.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres have scored first in 85% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .529 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .579.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 15% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 33% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have allowed 2.01 runs per game (195/97) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.22 (853.2 IP) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Nationals pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 59% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
More MLB Reading:
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