- The Phillies are -160 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+135) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-160) on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Padres are 45-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 43-41 ATS.
Padres vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 8-2, 3.38 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 6-2, 2.78 ERA
Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 -120 | +135 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +130 | U 8.5 +100 | -160 |
Padres vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 59.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+16.20 Units / 61% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+11.10 Units / 222% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+14.30 Units / 286% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 69% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 42 games (+15.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+11.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 away games (+11.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 away games (+3.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 67 games (+15.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 81 games (+12.63 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+10.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.06 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 59 games (+8.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 44-40 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.23% ROI).
- 45-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.22% ROI
- 34-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.25 Units / -18.75% ROI
- 47-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.45 Units / 10.16% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 43-41 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -1.04% ROI).
- 50-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units / 3.65% ROI
- 35-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.35 Units / -17.51% ROI
- 47-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.7 Units / 9.29% ROI
Phillies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Phillies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -118 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated sliders34% of the time (95/278) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .161 (192 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 97th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 47% of the time (332/711) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OPS of just .530 (180 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .704 — 93rd Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristopher Sanchez has a strikeout rate of 54% with two strikes this season — fourth highest among qualified SPs– 95th Percentile. He had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two strikes last season — sixth lowest among qualified SPs– 11th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has thrown his changeup 52% of the time (214/411) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (25/36) against Cristopher Sanchez in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (108/159) against Cristopher Sanchez since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 99th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 9-28 (.243) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Padres are 12-2 (.857) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Padres are 94-10 (.904) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .861.
The Padres are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .807.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 9-23 (.281) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are just 18-30 (.375) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are 27-14 (.659) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .546.
The Phillies are 29-20 (.592) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres have scored first in 91% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .409 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Phillies hitters have chased 20% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Phillies hitters have a swing rate of just 57% with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Phillies hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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