- The Padres are -115 favorites vs the Phillies
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sánchez
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The San Diego Padres (-115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-105) on Friday, July 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Padres vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 43-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 37-52 ATS.
Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +140 | O 9.5 -105 | -115 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -165 | U 9.5 -115 | -105 |
Padres vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 54.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 72% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 away games (+7.80 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+15.45 Units / 78% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+10.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Phillies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Phillies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Phillies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Phillies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 83 games (+14.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 away games (+10.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.50 Units / 86% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 38 away games (+3.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 41% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 72 games (+12.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 32 games (+11.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+9.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 44-46 against the Run Line (-4.75 Units / -4.32% ROI).
- 43-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.2 Units / -16.74% ROI
- 35-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.1 Units / -19.98% ROI
- 49-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.95 Units / 11.21% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 37-52 against the Run Line (-24.65 Units / -21.4% ROI).
- 48-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -3.32% ROI
- 34-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.6 Units / -16.91% ROI
- 46-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.85 Units / 9.05% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 51% of the time (151/297) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .500 (17-for-34) against Yu Darvish on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: .355 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 11% (12/111) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .212 (326 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (24/37) against Cristopher Sanchez — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has walked 1 of 46 batters (2%) over the last 14 days (2 games) — tied for 10th best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 82nd Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has a first-pitch strike rate of 74% (35/47) over the last 14 days (2 games) — tied for 3rd highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (24/37) against Cristopher Sanchez over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 27-39 (.409) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 7-41 (.146) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 20-6 (.769) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Phillies are 18-8 (.692) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Phillies are 39-1 (.975) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Phillies are just 7-18 (.280) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 690 walks in 6,738 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 276 walks in 2,390 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 374 walks in 3,413 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 1,112 walks in 11,199 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .261 against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .304 (1,044 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
The Phillies are batting .172 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,193 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (9 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 148 of 2,218 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Harrison (Phillies): Wrist, D10
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb, D60
Bet now on Padres vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
