- The – are favorites vs the –
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Saturday, July 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Padres vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 44-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 37-53 ATS.
Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | O | ||
| Phillies | U |
Padres vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 62.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 72% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.15 Units / 63% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.45 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 69% ROI)
- Bailey Falter has hit the Strikeouts Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.30 Units / 57% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.20 Units / 60% ROI)
- Taijuan Walker has hit the Strikeouts Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 90% ROI)
Phillies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Trea Turner | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Phillies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Trea Turner | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Trea Turner | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | 7.5 -175 | 7.5 +135 |
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 84 games (+13.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 46% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 73 games (+11.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 33 games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 45-46 against the Run Line (-3.25 Units / -2.93% ROI).
- 44-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.2 Units / -15.84% ROI
- 36-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.1 Units / -18.77% ROI
- 49-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.9 Units / 10.03% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 37-53 against the Run Line (-26.3 Units / -22.51% ROI).
- 48-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -4.14% ROI
- 35-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.6 Units / -15.71% ROI
- 46-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.8 Units / 7.89% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 58% (1,030/1,763) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 41% (104/254) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .091 (11-for-121) against Blake Snell’s curve and slider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — 100th Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 28 of 158 batters (18%) versus the top of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 11% (12/108) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 59% (261/445) in two strike counts this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has walked 38 of 398 batters (10%) this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 13th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Taijuan Walker’s pitches (238/445) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 27-39 (.409) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 3-34 (.081) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .441.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 17-92 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Phillies are 22-92 (.193) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Phillies are 4-38 (.095) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Phillies are 18-8 (.692) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 278 walks in 2,405 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 692 walks in 6,753 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 378 walks in 3,454 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of 1.000 (115 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .267 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Phillies are batting .254 with two outs since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Phillies hitters are slugging .250 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,193 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 54 of 796 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days (9 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Harrison (Phillies): Wrist, D10
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb, D60
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