- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Sunday, July 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Padres vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 44-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 39-53 ATS.
Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -150 | O 8.5 +100 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -120 | -150 |
Padres vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 68.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+13.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+13.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 72% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+15.65 Units / 72% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+10.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 72% ROI)
Phillies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Brandon Dixon | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Manny Machado | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Phillies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Brandon Dixon | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Manny Machado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Phillies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brandon Dixon | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Phillies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +120 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 83 games (+13.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 86 games (+12.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 39 games (+7.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 44 games (+3.90 Units / 7% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 75 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+8.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+5.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 34 games (+5.05 Units / 10% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 45-48 against the Run Line (-6.65 Units / -5.82% ROI).
- 44-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.2 Units / -17.08% ROI
- 37-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.1 Units / -17.4% ROI
- 49-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.8 Units / 8.73% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 39-53 against the Run Line (-23.3 Units / -19.6% ROI).
- 50-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -2.48% ROI
- 36-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.6 Units / -14.37% ROI
- 46-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.7 Units / 6.64% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (101/515) against Seth Lugo since last season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 29% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% (212/962) against Seth Lugo since last season — 10th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 12th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .275 (75-for-273) against Seth Lugo since last season — tied for 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .227 — 10th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .275 (75-for-273) against Seth Lugo since last season — tied for 5th highest among in MLB; League Avg: .228 — seventh Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .489 (22-for-45) against Zack Wheeler on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .342 — second Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.2 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (148 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (2,203/5,036) in non-two strike counts since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (160/365) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 96th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 5-17 (.227) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
The Padres are just 3-35 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Padres are just 2-38 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 18-8 (.692) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 17-92 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Phillies are 37-3 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Phillies are 38-3 (.927) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 285 walks in 2,443 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 389 walks in 3,531 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 699 walks in 6,791 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .358 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Phillies hitters are slugging .247 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Phillies hitter’ K:BB ratio is 4.1 against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 2.7.
Phillies hitters are slugging .611 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,215 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 153 of 2,245 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Harrison (Phillies): Wrist, D10
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb, D60
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