- The Padres are -115 favorites vs the Phillies
- Padres vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Padres / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-105) on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:15pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA, PA.
This season, the Padres are 45-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 43-41 ATS.
Padres vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 8-2, 3.38 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Mick Abel 2-1, 3.47 ERA
Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | O 9.5 -120 | -115 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | U 9.5 +100 | -105 |
Padres vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+16.20 Units / 61% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+11.10 Units / 222% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+14.30 Units / 286% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 69% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 42 games (+15.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+11.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 away games (+11.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 away games (+3.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 67 games (+15.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 81 games (+12.63 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+10.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.06 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 59 games (+8.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 44-40 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.23% ROI).
- 45-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.22% ROI
- 34-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.25 Units / -18.75% ROI
- 47-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.45 Units / 10.16% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 43-41 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -1.04% ROI).
- 50-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units / 3.65% ROI
- 35-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.35 Units / -17.51% ROI
- 47-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.7 Units / 9.29% ROI
Phillies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Phillies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Phillies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Phillies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Mick Abel (PHI) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -135 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (171/309) when behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a first-pitch in-zone of just 30% (14/47) in his last two starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 57% — first Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a first-pitch in-zone of just 30% (14/47) over the last 14 days — lowest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 57% — second Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 43% of the time (350/809) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristopher Sanchez has a strikeout rate of 54% with two strikes this season — fourth highest among qualified SPs– 95th Percentile. He had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two strikes last season — sixth lowest among qualified SPs– 11th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has thrown his changeup 52% of the time (214/411) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has a in-zone of just 34% (140/411) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has thrown his changeup 36% of the time (515/1,445) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Padres are 12-2 (.857) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Padres are 16-89 (.152) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Padres are 9-28 (.243) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 9-23 (.281) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Phillies are 21-70 (.231) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .138.
The Phillies are just 18-30 (.375) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are just 11-23 (.324) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres have scored first in 91% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have chased 42% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of 63% with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .409 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Phillies hitters have chased 20% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .289 (395 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 6% of batters over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have struck out 27% of left-handed batters they faced this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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