- The Phillies are -225 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+185) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-225) on Monday, June 30, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Padres are 45-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 42-41 ATS.
Padres vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 7-3, 2.46 ERA
Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -110 | O 8.5 +100 | +185 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -120 | -225 |
Padres vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 62.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+15.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+12.10 Units / 303% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.90 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+9.70 Units / 242% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Hits Allowed Under in his last 9 games (+9.70 Units / 101% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+7.70 Units / 96% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games (+14.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 69 games (+10.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 away games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.70 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 66 games (+14.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 80 games (+11.63 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.06 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 58 games (+7.85 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 44-39 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 0.69% ROI).
- 45-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 1.13% ROI
- 34-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.25 Units / -17.86% ROI
- 46-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.45 Units / 9.2% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 42-41 against the Run Line (-2.1 Units / -2.01% ROI).
- 49-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 2.95% ROI
- 35-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.35 Units / -16.62% ROI
- 46-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.7 Units / 8.32% ROI
Phillies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -250 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
Phillies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Phillies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Phillies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (24/102) against Matt Waldron when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 164 of Matt Waldron’s 728 off-speed pitches out of the zone (23%) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.
59% of Matt Waldron’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone since last season — tied for 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 92nd Percentile.
Matt Waldron threw off-speed pitches 63% of the time (396/626) on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total NonFB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .151 (19-for-126) against Zack Wheeler’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .170 (34-for-200) against Zack Wheeler this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .186 (66-for-355) against Zack Wheeler this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 95th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of just .243 (383 PA’s) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — 95th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 9-27 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Padres are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .806.
The Padres are 12-2 (.857) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Padres are 42-13 (.764) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 9-23 (.281) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are just 11-23 (.324) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are 121-5 (.960) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Phillies are 28-20 (.583) after a win this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have chased 42% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of 63% with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres have scored first in 91% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 20% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
The Phillies are batting .409 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Phillies hitters are slugging .428 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .285 (387 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres have won 50% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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