Padres vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 21, NLCS

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 21, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres are -115 favorites vs the Phillies
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove, 1.38 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez, 2.70 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The San Diego Padres (-115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-105) on Friday, October 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37pm EDT in Philadelphia for this postseason game.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Padres vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 95-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 88-82 ATS.

Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +145O 7.5 -115-115
Phillies +1.5 -175U 7.5 -105-105

Padres vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Padres and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 64 away games (+15.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Mike Clevinger has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+10.75 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 27 away games (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 58 games at home (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+14.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 41 of his last 81 games (+13.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 50 of his last 86 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 34 games (+11.15 Units / 23% ROI)

Phillies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Bryce Harper 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Bryson Stott 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Phillies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
Bryce Harper 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Bryson Stott 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -250 0.5 +170

Phillies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Bryce Harper 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Bryson Stott 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Phillies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joe Musgrove 5.5 -120 5.5 -115
Ranger Suarez 3.5 -145 3.5 +100
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 76 of their last 146 games (+11.55 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 39 away games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+7.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 56 games at home (+17.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 66 of their last 112 games (+15.53 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 120 games (+14.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+8.73 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 56 games at home (+8.40 Units / 13% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 79-92 against the Run Line (-18.65 Units / -8.72% ROI).

  • 95-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -9 Units / -3.54% ROI
  • 81-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.85 Units / -6.31% ROI
  • 85-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -2.22% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 88-82 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 0.33% ROI).

  • 93-77 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 0.7% ROI
  • 86-78 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.35 Units / 0.19% ROI
  • 78-86 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.5 Units / -8.32% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .250 (17-for-68) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — 95th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .071 (2-for-28) against Joe Musgrove — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .237 — 97th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.4 MPH this season (490 balls in play) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 88.6

Joe Musgrove has thrown breaking pitches 63% of the time (1,075/1,718) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 97th Percentile.

Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.188 (19 Total Bases / 16 ABs) this month (1 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: .385 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (24/171) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (149/245) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.8 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (115 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 89.6

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Padres are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Padres hitters are slugging .227 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .210.

24% of Padres hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Phillies hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 31 total hits (61%) against RHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.

The Phillies are batting .260 at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Padres pitchers have walked 10 of 53 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Padres pitchers have walked 11 of 71 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,898 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Phillies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.