- The Padres are -115 favorites vs the Phillies
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove, 1.38 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez, 2.70 ERA
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The San Diego Padres (-115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-105) on Friday, October 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37pm EDT in Philadelphia for this postseason game.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Padres vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 95-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 88-82 ATS.
Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -115 | -115 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 -105 | -105 |
Padres vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 64 away games (+15.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Mike Clevinger has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+10.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 27 away games (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 58 games at home (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+14.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 41 of his last 81 games (+13.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 50 of his last 86 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 34 games (+11.15 Units / 23% ROI)
Phillies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Phillies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Phillies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -115 |
| Ranger Suarez | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 76 of their last 146 games (+11.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 39 away games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+7.70 Units / 27% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 56 games at home (+17.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 66 of their last 112 games (+15.53 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 120 games (+14.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+8.73 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 56 games at home (+8.40 Units / 13% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 79-92 against the Run Line (-18.65 Units / -8.72% ROI).
- 95-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -9 Units / -3.54% ROI
- 81-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.85 Units / -6.31% ROI
- 85-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -2.22% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 88-82 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 0.33% ROI).
- 93-77 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 0.7% ROI
- 86-78 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.35 Units / 0.19% ROI
- 78-86 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.5 Units / -8.32% ROI
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .250 (17-for-68) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — 95th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .071 (2-for-28) against Joe Musgrove — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .237 — 97th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.4 MPH this season (490 balls in play) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 88.6
Joe Musgrove has thrown breaking pitches 63% of the time (1,075/1,718) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 97th Percentile.
Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.188 (19 Total Bases / 16 ABs) this month (1 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: .385 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (24/171) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (149/245) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.8 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (115 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 89.6
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Padres hitters are slugging .227 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
24% of Padres hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 31 total hits (61%) against RHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Phillies are batting .260 at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 10 of 53 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Padres pitchers have walked 11 of 71 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,898 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Phillies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
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