Phillies vs. Padres: NLCS Prediction & Odds

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San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado, right, celebrates with relief pitcher Josh Hader (71) after the Padres defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-3 in Game 4 of a baseball NL Division Series, Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022, in San Diego.
(AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
Rachael Millanta @rachaelmillanta Oct 17, 2022, 3:53 PM
  • The League Championship Series is the third round of the MLB postseason.
  • The San Diego Padres will meet the Philadelphia Phillies for a seven-game series.
  • The National League Championship Series is Oct. 18‑25, 2022.
  • The winner of this series will advance to the World Series.

With the National League Wild Card Series and Division Series now decided, the MLB postseason continues on Tuesday, October 18, with the League Championship Series. Just four teams remain in contention — two from each league — and the pressure is on.

The Phillies will take on the Padres for a seven-game series split between Petco Park in San Diego (Games 1, 2, 6, and 7) and Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia (Games 3, 4, and 5). The winner of this matchup will advance to the World Series to take on the winner of the ALCS.

Phillies vs. Padres Series Schedule

GAMEDATETIMEFIELD
Game 1Tuesday, Oct. 188:03 p.m.Petco Park
Game 2Wednesday, Oct. 194:35 p.m.Petco Park
Game 3Friday, Oct. 21 7:37 p.m.Citizens Bank Park
Game 4Saturday, Oct. 227:45 p.m.Citizens Bank Park
Game 5Sunday, Oct. 232:37 p.m.Citizens Bank Park
Game 6Monday, Oct. 248:03 p.m.Petco Park
Game 7Tuesday, Oct. 258:03 p.m.Petco Park

Odds to Win NL Championship Series (as of Oct. 17):

  • Phillies -105 to win
  • Padres -115 to win

Total Series Games Over/Under (as of Oct. 17):

  • Over 4.5 (-800)
  • Under 4.5 (+550)
  • Over 5.5 (-185)
  • Under 5.5 (+145)
  • Over 6.5 (+200)
  • Under 6.5 (-250)

Phillies vs. Padres Series Prediction

I predict the Padres will win the NL Championship Series against the Phillies in seven games.

The Padres were arguably the most aggressive team at the MLB Trade Deadline, making big moves to bolster their roster for the second half of the season. All eyes were on San Diego to dominate in the regular season’s final months, but the team’s “win now” approach to player acquisition didn’t immediately appear to pay off as they would have liked.

Star outfielder Juan Soto wasn’t quite the difference-maker they were hoping for, controversial shortstop Fernando Tatís Jr. was suspended for PEDs, and if San Diego managed to get a playoff berth at all, it was generally expected to be rather short-lived.

Well, the Padres have officially silenced even their most judgemental critics, and anything that wasn’t clicking with the newly acquired roster in the second half of the season certainly appears to be working now.

In the Division Series, the Padres beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in four games, scoring 5-3, 2-1, and 5-3 victories in the second, third, and fourth games, respectively. Considering the Dodgers finished the regular season with the best record (111-51) and run differential (+334) in the MLB and were contending to be the best team in franchise history, this was a major upset, especially from a lower-ranking division rival.

Beating the Dodgers in the Division Series immediately after defeating the New York Mets in the Wild Card Series proved the Padres can’t be discounted as a pushover in the playoffs. The roster is stacked with talent — the front office made sure of it in August — and they are coming in very hot.

On the other side of the field, the Phillies have had a tumultuous year, but the drama seems to have only made them stronger — at least enough to win their way into the Championship Series.

In June, the team fired manager Joe Girardi. The Phillies started the season 22-29 and making a dramatic change to fix it turned out to be the right call. Bench coach Rob Thomson stepped up as interim manager and immediately led the Phillies to win 14 of their next 16 games. 

The Phillies finished the regular season with a record of 87-75, securing the third NL Wild Card spot. They were third in the NL East behind the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves, who have already been eliminated from the playoffs. As they say, slow and steady wins the race.

In the Division Series, the Phillies beat the Atlanta Braves in four games, scoring 7-6, 9-1, and 8-3 victories in the first, third, and fourth games, respectively. The Braves were the clear favorite going into the series, but as the Phillies proved in the Wild Card Series when they beat the St. Louis Cardinals in two games, being the underdog doesn’t bother them at all.

The Phillies have shown over the last two rounds they are a force to be reckoned with. Arguably the most underestimated team of the playoffs, the Phillies came in ready to compete and are showing no signs of slowing down, regardless of what the odds say.

Throughout the regular season, the Phillies and Padres met seven times, and the Phillies won four games. The Padres won three games — two away and one at home — proving this will be a highly contested matchup, and even though I’m putting my weight behind the Padres, I can see this series being close.

Regardless of which team takes the NL Championship Series, it’s clear 2022 is the year of the underdog. The Phillies and Padres both went into the playoffs massively underestimated and have each knocked out top teams in the league. This will be a series to watch.

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record — Regular Season

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 72-89 against the Run Line (-22.85 Units / -11.46% ROI).

  • 89-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.2 Units / -5.39% ROI
  • 75-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.45 Units / -8.13% ROI
  • 82-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.28% ROI

Padres Over/Under Record — Regular Season

In the 2022 regular season, the Padres hit the over 74 times, the under 82 times, and pushed 6.

Padres Over/Under Record — Postseason

In the 2022 postseason, the Padres have hit the over 4 times, the under 2 times, and pushed 0.

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record — Regular Season

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 82-80 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -0.96% ROI).

  • 87-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -1.31% ROI
  • 81-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -0.75% ROI
  • 75-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.1 Units / -7.37% ROI

Phillies Over/Under Record — Regular Season

In the 2022 regular season, the Phillies hit the over 82 times, the under 75 times, and pushed 5.

Phillies Over/Under Record — Postseason

In the 2022 postseason, the Phillies have hit the over 4 times, the under 2 times, and pushed 0.

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About the Author

Rachael Millanta

Read More @rachaelmillanta

Rachael Millanta is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM focusing on Major League Baseball. Her work has been published in SB Nation, McSweeney’s Internet Tendency and Slackjaw Humor. Originally from Sydney, Australia, Rachael now resides in Chicago, Illinois.

Rachael Millanta is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM focusing on Major League Baseball. Her work has been published in SB Nation, McSweeney’s Internet Tendency and Slackjaw Humor. Originally from Sydney, Australia, Rachael now resides in Chicago, Illinois.