- The Pirates are -135 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Pirates TV Channel: PDTV | SNPT
The San Diego Padres (+110) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-135) on April 6, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Padres are 4-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 6-3 ATS.
Padres vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: German Marquez 0-1, 12.01 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bubba Chandler 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Padres vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Padres vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+12.80 Units / 183% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+9.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+8.70 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+16.50 Units / 110% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+15.40 Units / 192% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+13.30 Units / 53% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 151 games (+17.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 64 away games (+15.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 away games (+13.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 80 games (+7.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 150 games (+27.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 92 of their last 151 games (+26.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 77 of their last 124 games (+24.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 62 games at home (+14.29 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+13.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 4-4 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -12.18% ROI).
- 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -9.41% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -24.87% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.7 Units / 17.09% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 6-3 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 18.62% ROI).
- 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.6 Units / 36.18% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 6.7% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.65 Units / -16.34% ROI
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres were 11-55 (.167) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Padres were 63-5 (.926) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Padres were 25-6 (.806) when they hit 2 or more home runs in the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Padres were 48-12 (.800) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .743.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates were just 6-50 (.107) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Pirates were just 13-24 (.351) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2025 season Today, they face the Padres (28th in runs scored).
The Pirates were just 1-80 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Pirates are just 14-88 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP in the 2025 season — best in MLB.
Padres hitters have a groundball batting average of just .127 this season — lowest in MLB.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since the 2024 season — best in MLB.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates batted just .121 in lefty-lefty matchups in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.
Pirates hitters slugged just .333 on the road in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
The Pirates are batting just .150 in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.
Pirates hitters slugged just .339 against LHP in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Padres pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB.
Padres pitchers had an ERA of 3.65 (1433.0 IP) in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.
Opponents batted just .225 against Padres pitchers in the 2025 season — best in MLB.
The Padres pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 35% of their games in the 2025 season — tied for lowest in MLB.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 21% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB.
Pirates pitchers walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.
Pirates pitchers won only 14% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 38% in late innings this season — best in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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