Padres vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 8

Pirates player Andrew McCutchen smiling while running.
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
  • The Padres are -110 favorites vs the Pirates
  • Padres vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
  • Padres / Pirates TV Channel: PDTV | SNPT

The San Diego Padres (-110) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) on Thursday, August 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.

This season, the Padres are 63-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 63-50 ATS.

Padres vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 3-6, 4.64 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-0, 26.99 ERA

Padres vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +155O 8.5 -105-110
Pirates +1.5 -190U 8.5 -115-110

Padres vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


Bet now on Padres vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 44 games (+41.00 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+16.25 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.95 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+11.55 Units / 79% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 40 games (+20.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 18 games at home (+15.40 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 21 games at home (+12.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 56 away games (+18.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games (+13.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.85 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 74 games (+15.70 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 69 games (+9.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 69 games (+5.95 Units / 8% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 60-55 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 4.89% ROI).

  • 63-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 1% ROI
  • 61-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.25 Units / 2.59% ROI
  • 53-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.75 Units / -11.54% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 63-50 against the Run Line (+10.61 Units / 7.25% ROI).

  • 56-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -1.64% ROI
  • 52-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.8 Units / -8.61% ROI
  • 57-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.58 Units / 0.47% ROI

Pirates vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Oneil Cruz (PIT) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700
Joey Bart (PIT) 0.5 +575 0.5 -900
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 +575 0.5 -800

Pirates vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jake Cronenworth (SD) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Oneil Cruz (PIT) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170

Pirates vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) 0.5 +120 0.5 -160
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Oneil Cruz (PIT) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Jake Cronenworth (SD) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Rowdy Tellez (PIT) 0.5 +185 0.5 -250

Pirates vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Luis Ortiz (PIT) 3.5 +110 3.5 -140

The last hit on a Randy Vasquez cutter was June 22nd. Hitters are 0 for their last 17 in ABs ending on his cutter. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opponents are hitting .412 (21-for-51) against Randy Vasquez’s inside fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .255 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (36/255) against Randy Vasquez this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .312 (95-for-304) against Randy Vasquez this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .244 — first Percentile.

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Ortiz has a strikeout rate of just 35% (65 SO in 185 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.

Luis Ortiz has struck out just 17% (34/199) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 12th lowest among among 104 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 11th Percentile.

Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 58% (130/224) against Luis Ortiz on pitches in the strike zone in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.

Luis Ortiz allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.4 MPH (287 batted balls) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 89.2 — 0 Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Padres are 36-25 (.590) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .491.

The Padres are 20-13 (.606) after a road win this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .464.

The Padres are 32-23 (.582) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.

The Padres are 47-4 (.922) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .858.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Pirates are just 12-18 (.400) after a home win this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.

The Pirates are just 98-22 (.817) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.

The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.

The Pirates are just 17-28 (.378) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are batting .282 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.

Padres hitters have just 228 strikeouts in 1,312 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres hitters have just 768 strikeouts in 4,329 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres hitters have just 540 strikeouts in 3,017 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Pirates hitters have 201 strikeouts in 578 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Pirates hitters have 73 strikeouts in 196 PA’s (37%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .495 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.

The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,715 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9

The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,530 of 16,810 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the past seven days (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Pirates have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Pirates vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
  • Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
  • Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
  • Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
  • Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
  • Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
  • Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
  • Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
  • Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL

Bet now on Padres vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.

First Bet Offer BetMGM State Promo Pages $1,500
About the Author

BetMGM

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.