- The – are favorites vs the –
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The San Diego Padres () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Tuesday, June 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Padres vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 37-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 36-41 ATS.
Padres vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | O | ||
| Pirates | U |
Padres vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 80.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.20 Units / 65% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+15.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+9.95 Units / 99% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
Pirates vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Pirates vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Pirates vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Rich Hill | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 71 games (+19.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 68 games (+12.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 49 games (+20.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 46% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 37-41 against the Run Line (-8 Units / -8.25% ROI).
- 37-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.35 Units / -16.96% ROI
- 28-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -25 Units / -28.57% ROI
- 47-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.65 Units / 19.73% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 36-41 against the Run Line (-15.05 Units / -14.64% ROI).
- 35-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -4.69% ROI
- 36-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.6 Units / -5.43% ROI
- 37-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -2.77% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .500 (17-for-34) against Yu Darvish on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .345 — fourth Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of .389 (35 Total Bases / 90 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — 15th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 72% (13/18) against Yu Darvish — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 56% of the time (150/267) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
14 of Rich Hill’s 41 breaking pitch strikeouts (34%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has walked 8 of 48 batters (17%) over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (117/337) when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (71/202) against Rich Hill on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are 8-8 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are just 1-2 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 34-3 (.919) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Padres are 30-4 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 16-25 (.390) after a road win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .490.
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 5-16 (.238) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .435.
The Pirates are just 28-50 (.359) after a road loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .451.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 654 walks in 6,415 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .376 against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Padres hitters have drawn 240 walks in 2,067 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .281 over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .296 (2,755 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .367 against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (1,877 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Padres have won 35% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 858 of 9,176 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 62 of 678 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 304 of 3,495 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Wrist, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Back, D10
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Thomas Cosgrove (Padres): Hamstring, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
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