- The Padres are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The San Diego Padres (-165) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Padres vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 37-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 37-41 ATS.
Padres vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -115 | -165 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -105 | +140 |
Padres vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 73.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.40 Units / 68% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 19 away games (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+13.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+10.05 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.45 Units / 90% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 77% ROI)
Pirates vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Pirates vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Pirates vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Pirates vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Blake Snell | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -130 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+18.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 69 games (+13.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 50 games (+19.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 32 games at home (+0.30 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.15 Units / 2% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 37-42 against the Run Line (-9 Units / -9.18% ROI).
- 37-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.85 Units / -18.04% ROI
- 29-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -24 Units / -27.09% ROI
- 47-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.55 Units / 18.19% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 37-41 against the Run Line (-14.05 Units / -13.51% ROI).
- 36-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -3.17% ROI
- 37-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -4.2% ROI
- 37-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -4.02% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has walked 33 of 276 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 58% (851/1,456) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strikeout rate of 51% (23 SO in 45 PAs) over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 59% (697/1,175) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (21/135) against Mitch Keller this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .146 (6 Total Bases / 41 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — 96th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has struck out 31% (66/213) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (19/79) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are 8-9 (.471) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are just 5-91 (.052) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Padres are just 7-38 (.156) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Padres are just 1-2 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 21-53 (.284) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 38-45 (.458) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Pirates are just 98-142 (.408) since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 654 walks in 6,415 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 325 walks in 2,945 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 240 walks in 2,067 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .367 against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .227 (7,771 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .300 (5,986 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Pirates are batting just .227 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (1,910 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 481.0 feet — — tied for 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 460.1
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 62 of 678 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 858 of 9,176 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Wrist, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Back, D10
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Thomas Cosgrove (Padres): Hamstring, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Pectoral Strain, D15
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