Padres vs Rangers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 3

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Texas Rangers' Marcus Semien watches his two-run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the ninth inning in Game 5 of the baseball World Series Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2023, in Phoenix.
(AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 03, 2024, 11:00 AM
  • The Rangers are -145 favorites vs the Padres
  • Padres vs Rangers Over / Under today: 9 Runs
  • Padres / Rangers TV Channel: PDTV | BSSW | MLBN

The San Diego Padres (+120) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-145) on Wednesday, July 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Arlington, TX.

This season, the Padres are 46-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 40-45 ATS.

Padres vs Rangers Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Padres starting pitcher: Adam Mazur 1-2, 7.26 ERA
  • Rangers starting pitcher: Jon Gray 3-4, 3.81 ERA

Padres vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -160O 9 -115+120
Rangers -1.5 +135U 9 -105-145

Padres vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
  • Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Josh H. Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+22.10 Units / 246% ROI)
  • Josh H. Smith has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+16.95 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+14.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Leody Taveras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+12.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 away games (+11.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+8.70 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 36 games at home (+17.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+8.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+7.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.15 Units / 26% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 45-44 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 2.59% ROI).

  • 46-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -4.52% ROI
  • 47-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 2.37% ROI
  • 41-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.05 Units / -11.19% ROI

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rangers are 40-45 against the Run Line (-10.15 Units / -9.19% ROI).

  • 39-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.7 Units / -12.94% ROI
  • 32-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.8 Units / -23.28% ROI
  • 49-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.1 Units / 15.1% ROI

Rangers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Corey Seager (TEX) 0.5 +270 0.5 -350
Adolis Garcia (TEX) 0.5 +280 0.5 -350
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Marcus Semien (TEX) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Wyatt Langford (TEX) 0.5 +500 0.5 -750

Rangers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Nate Lowe (TEX) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Adolis Garcia (TEX) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Jurickson Profar (SD) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Wyatt Langford (TEX) 0.5 -210 0.5 +160

Rangers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adolis Garcia (TEX) 0.5 +120 0.5 -160
Corey Seager (TEX) 0.5 +125 0.5 -160
Manny Machado (SD) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Marcus Semien (TEX) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Jake Cronenworth (SD) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210

Rangers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jon Gray (TEX) 3.5 -165 3.5 +130
Adam Mazur (SD) 3.5 +120 3.5 -160

Adam Mazur has limited playing time.

Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jon Gray allowed a batting average of just .100 vs right-handed batters (tied for eighth best)– 92nd Percentile and .409 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (fourth worst among qualified SPs)– fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .444 (71-for-160) against Jon Gray on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: .342 — second Percentile.

Jon Gray has allowed a just .150 SLG vs right-handed batters (ninth best)– 91st Percentile and .727 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (third worst among qualified SPs)– third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .482 (53-for-110) against Jon Gray on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: .345 — first Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

The Padres are just 1-105 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.

The Padres are 97-17 (.851) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.

The Padres are just 30-106 (.221) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.

The Padres are just 0-39 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.

Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Rangers are just 2-31 (.061) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.

The Rangers are just 7-77 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .142.

The Rangers are just 93-61 (.604) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.

The Rangers are just 2-100 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.

Padres hitters have an OBP of .385 (404 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .331.

The Padres are batting .276 on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

Padres hitters have just 413 strikeouts in 2,263 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of .337 (4,557 PA’s) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .321.

Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .919 (590 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.050.

Rangers hitters have drawn 247 walks in 2,602 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rangers hitters have an OPS of .755 (6,889 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,074 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0

The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0

Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .207 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .233.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Rangers pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .217 against Rangers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Rangers pitchers have walked 303 of 3,158 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 47 of 746 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rangers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Scherzer (Texas Rangers): Back, 15-Day IL
  • Jacob deGrom (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Brett Martin (Texas Rangers): Shoulder, Out
  • Tyler Mahle (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Jonathan Hernandez (Texas Rangers): Lat, 15-Day IL
  • Carson Coleman (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Nathaniel Lowe (Texas Rangers): Oblique, 10-Day IL
  • Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
  • Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
  • Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.