- The Padres are + favorites vs the Reds
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Reds starting pitcher: Brandon Williamson
- Watch the game on BSOH
The San Diego Padres (+) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+) on Saturday, July 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Padres vs Reds Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 37-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 52-30 ATS.
Padres vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | + + | O + | + |
| Reds | + + | U + | + |
Padres vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 75.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 57% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.70 Units / 59% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 35 games (+14.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+13.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+12.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 41 games (+11.55 Units / 14% ROI)
Reds vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Manny Machado | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Reds vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Will Benson | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Matt McLain | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
Reds vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Manny Machado | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Matt McLain | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Reds vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williamson | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 72 games (+16.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+16.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 18 away games (+4.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 28 games (+3.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+3.60 Units / 8% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 60 games (+22.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 81 games (+20.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 42 games at home (+16.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 36 games (+12.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 75 games (+12.45 Units / 15% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 37-45 against the Run Line (-12.25 Units / -12.1% ROI).
- 37-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -26 Units / -21.53% ROI
- 31-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -22 Units / -23.91% ROI
- 47-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.4 Units / 15.11% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 52-30 against the Run Line (+19.4 Units / 18.54% ROI).
- 44-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.85 Units / 16.56% ROI
- 48-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.2 Units / 12.49% ROI
- 34-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.7 Units / -20.61% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .229 (8-for-35) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .340 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (29/94) against Michael Wacha in two-strike counts this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (75/228) against Michael Wacha this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed an OBP of just .254 (177 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 92nd Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .125 (5 GB hits out of 40 GBs) against Brandon Williamson this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 97th Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has allowed an OPS of .867 (139 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .727 — ninth Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (284/654) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (31/101) against Brandon Williamson this season — 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 42% — eighth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Padres are just 1-3 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 33-7 (.825) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.
The Padres are 8-11 (.421) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Padres are 34-5 (.872) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Reds are just 9-13 (.409) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Reds are 31-1 (.969) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .893.
The Reds are just 31-24 (.564) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Reds are 17-29 (.370) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 252 walks in 2,189 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .377 against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Padres hitters have drawn 666 walks in 6,537 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Reds are batting .392 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .353.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (1,962 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .226.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .303 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Reds pitchers have walked 924 of 9,452 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Reds vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pec, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Pectoral Strain, D15
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