- The Reds are -160 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Padres / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+135) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-160) on Saturday, June 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Padres are 44-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 45-36 ATS.
Padres vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 3-4, 3.65 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 7-1, 1.79 ERA
Padres vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -160 | O 9.5 -115 | +135 |
| Reds | -1.5 +135 | U 9.5 -105 | -160 |
Padres vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+13.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 20 away games (+11.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- Randy Vasquez has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.80 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Gavin Lux has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Walks Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games (+12.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 67 games (+10.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 away games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 away games (+2.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.60 Units / 7% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+4.80 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.45 Units / 29% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 42-39 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -1.19% ROI).
- 44-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 0.88% ROI
- 33-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.05 Units / -18.09% ROI
- 45-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.55 Units / 9.53% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 45-36 against the Run Line (+2.4 Units / 2.15% ROI).
- 43-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 1.8% ROI
- 34-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.85 Units / -17.7% ROI
- 46-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.7 Units / 9.58% ROI
Reds vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -285 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
Reds vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jose Trevino (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Reds vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Reds vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
| Randy Vasquez (SD) | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -155 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .091 (2-for-22) against Randy Vasquez’s low fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .279 — 99th Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has struck out just 10% (35/368) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has a strikeout rate of just 29% (107 SO in 368 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 51% (58/114) of right-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Abbott has walked 2% of batters this month (4 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has a strike rate of 73% (138/190) in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 47% (47/99) against Andrew Abbott in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .269 (7-for-26) against Andrew Abbott with two-strikes in his last two starts — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .153 — fourth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Padres are 11-2 (.846) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Padres are 7-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .806.
The Padres are 67-56 (.545) on the road since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Padres are 94-10 (.904) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .862.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Reds are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Reds are just 8-19 (.296) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 0-33 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Reds are just 16-30 (.348) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres have scored first in 91% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Reds hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 45% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 3% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Padres vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
