- The Reds are -130 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-130) on Sunday, June 29, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH, OH.
This season, the Padres are 45-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 45-37 ATS.
Padres vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Stephen Kolek 3-3, 3.88 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 5-5, 3.67 ERA
Padres vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | O 9.5 -120 | +110 |
| Reds | -1.5 +155 | U 9.5 +100 | -130 |
Padres vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+11.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.10 Units / 253% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.25 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+10.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.85 Units / 84% ROI)
- Gavin Lux has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 42% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+13.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 68 games (+9.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 away games (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+3.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+10.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+6.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 73 games (+5.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 32% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 43-39 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.23% ROI).
- 45-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 2.06% ROI
- 34-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.05 Units / -16.76% ROI
- 45-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.45 Units / 8.2% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 45-37 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 1.24% ROI).
- 43-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.25% ROI
- 35-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.85 Units / -16.38% ROI
- 46-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.6 Units / 8.27% ROI
Reds vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Reds vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Reds vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Kolek (SD) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left handed batters have a Hard-Hit Rate of 59% (51/86) against Stephen Kolek this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted .327 (36-for-110) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .303 (59-for-195) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — third Percentile.
Stephen Kolek has a strikeout rate of just 16% (18 SO in 112 PAs) this month (5 games) — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .433 (13-for-30) against Nick Lodolo’s low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .266 — third Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has not walked any of the 102 opponent 7-8-9 hitters that he has faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a first-pitch strike rate of 68% (252/372) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 87th Percentile.
76% of Nick Lodolo’s fastball strikeouts are elevated this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 53% — 96th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Padres are 9-27 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Padres are 12-2 (.857) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Padres are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Padres are 79-58 (.577) after a win since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Reds are just 8-19 (.296) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 1-33 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Reds are just 16-30 (.348) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .127.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres have scored first in 91% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Reds are batting just .223 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 45% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .635 (2,804 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .692.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 2% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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