Padres vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 30

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 30, 2023, 3:32 PM
  • The Padres are -135 favorites vs the Reds
  • Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
  • Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The San Diego Padres (-135) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+115) on Friday, June 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 5:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Padres vs Reds Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.

This season, the Padres are 37-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 51-30 ATS.

Padres vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +105O 11 -115-135
Reds +1.5 -130U 11 -105+115

Padres vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 65.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Padres vs Reds and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 21 away games (+8.90 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.70 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.45 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 34 games (+15.00 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+12.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+11.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)

Reds vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
TJ Friedl 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jonathan India 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Elly De La Cruz 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Joey Votto 0.5 +280 0.5 -450

Reds vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
TJ Friedl 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Jonathan India 1.5 +190 1.5 -250
Elly De La Cruz 0.5 -250 0.5 +195
Joey Votto 0.5 -210 0.5 +155

Reds vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
TJ Friedl 0.5 +190 0.5 -250
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +185 0.5 -250
Jonathan India 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Elly De La Cruz 0.5 +130 0.5 -175
Joey Votto 0.5 +130 0.5 -165

Reds vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Seth Lugo 4.5 +105 4.5 -135
Graham Ashcraft 4.5 +140 4.5 -185
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+17.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 71 games (+15.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+5.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 games (+3.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 59 games (+21.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 80 games (+19.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 41 games at home (+17.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 74 games (+11.45 Units / 14% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 37-44 against the Run Line (-11.25 Units / -11.22% ROI).

  • 37-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.55 Units / -20.58% ROI
  • 30-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -23 Units / -25.32% ROI
  • 47-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.45 Units / 16.49% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 51-30 against the Run Line (+18.4 Units / 17.8% ROI).

  • 43-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.6 Units / 15.33% ROI
  • 47-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.2 Units / 11.52% ROI
  • 34-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.65 Units / -19.68% ROI

Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (182/869) against Seth Lugo since last season — 15th lowest among among 191 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 29% — seventh Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (78/135) against Seth Lugo in two-strike counts since last season — 7th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 92nd Percentile.

Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .165 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for ninth best among qualified RPs)– 91st Percentile.

Seth Lugo has walked 30 of 491 batters (6%) since last season — 10th best among in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 89th Percentile.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 8.22 (73.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — 0 Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 9.17 (36.1 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 4.14 — 0 Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 6.44 (93.2 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 3.81 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .414 (29-for-70) against Graham Ashcraft’s inside fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .264 — first Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Padres are just 33-7 (.825) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.

The Padres are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.

The Padres are 8-10 (.444) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.

The Padres are just 3-33 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Reds are just 20-46 (.303) after a road loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.

The Reds are just 30-24 (.556) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.

The Reds are just 9-13 (.409) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .591.

The Reds are 16-29 (.356) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .214.

Padres hitters have drawn 244 walks in 2,115 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Padres hitters have drawn 658 walks in 6,463 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres hitters are slugging .449 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.

Padres hitters have an OPS of .781 (905 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .738.

Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Reds hitters have an OBP of .337 (2,300 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (1,962 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Reds pitchers have walked 921 of 9,407 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Edward Lively (Reds): Pec, D15
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
  • Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
  • José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Yu Darvish (Padres): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
  • Thomas Cosgrove (Padres): Hamstring, D15
  • David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D15
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
  • Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
  • Steven Wilson (Padres): Pectoral Strain, D15

Bet now on Padres vs Reds and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

BetMGM first bet offer for $1000
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.