- The Padres are -200 favorites vs the Rockies
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland
- Watch the game on SportsNet RM
The San Diego Padres (-200) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (+165) on Wednesday, August 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Denver.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Padres vs Rockies Over/Under is 12.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 53-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 52-55 ATS.
Padres vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -2.5 +105 | O 12.5 -110 | -200 |
| Rockies | +2.5 -125 | U 12.5 -110 | +165 |
Padres vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 83.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Rockies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.65 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brenton Doyle has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+12.60 Units / 63% ROI)
- Harold Castro has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+11.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brenton Doyle has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- Harold Castro has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Brenton Doyle has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
Rockies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Michael Toglia | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Elehuris Montero | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Rockies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Michael Toglia | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Elehuris Montero | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 1.5 +130 | 1.5 -165 |
Rockies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Michael Toglia | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Elehuris Montero | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Rockies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -160 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 101 games (+15.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 98 games (+12.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 59 games (+7.40 Units / 10% ROI)
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 95 games (+15.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 48 games at home (+13.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+9.15 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.25 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 42 games at home (+8.20 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 54-54 against the Run Line (-3.9 Units / -2.95% ROI).
- 53-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.3 Units / -15.65% ROI
- 42-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.9 Units / -19.03% ROI
- 58-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.3 Units / 10.46% ROI
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 52-55 against the Run Line (-5.95 Units / -4.78% ROI).
- 42-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -6.71% ROI
- 45-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.1 Units / -19.47% ROI
- 62-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.4 Units / 11.46% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 39% (169/439) against Joe Musgrove this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.2 MPH on inside pitches since last season (250 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (7/50) against Joe Musgrove on inside fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 48% (154/323) against Joe Musgrove with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 98th Percentile.
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters batted .312 (114-for-365) against Lucas Giolito in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has an average spin rate of 1957.7 RPM on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 2400.2 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 28% (128/456) versus Lucas Giolito in 2022 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Lucas Giolito allowed a slugging percentage of .542 (198 Total Bases / 365 ABs) against right-handed batters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — second Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
keys to the game – away
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rockies are just 52-48 (.520) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Rockies are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rockies are just 34-19 (.642) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Rockies are just 26-61 (.299) after a road loss since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .206 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have drawn 331 walks in 2,894 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies have won just 50% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Rockies have an average HR distance of 412.0 feet since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 398.7.
The Rockies have won just 49% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Rockies are batting .277 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,385 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Rockies pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Rockies pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rockies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Sean Bouchard (Rockies): Biceps, D60
- Robert Anderson (Rockies): Shoulder, D15
- Kristopher Bryant (Rockies): Finger, D10
- Charles Blackmon (Rockies): Hand, D10
- Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Feltner (Rockies): Skull, D60
- Matthew Carasiti (Rockies): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Undisclosed, D60
- Germán Márquez (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Rockies): Oblique, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
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