Padres vs Rockies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres (49-38) are -150 favorites vs the Rockies (38-48)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (3-4), 4.17 ERA
  • Rockies starting pitcher: José Ureña (0-0), 2.51 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The San Diego Padres (-150) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (+125) on Monday, July 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in Denver.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Padres vs Rockies Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 49-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 43-43 ATS.

Padres vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +100O 11.5 -105-150
Rockies +1.5 -120U 11.5 -115+125

Padres vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s matchup with 55.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Rockies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+11.15 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.40 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 28 away games (+6.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 21 away games (+5.95 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • C.J. Cron has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.50 Units / 67% ROI)
  • C.J. Cron has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • C.J. Cron has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.70 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Brendan Rodgers has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Brendan Rodgers has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 60% ROI)

Rockies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brendan Rodgers 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Charlie Blackmon 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Connor Joe 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Elehuris Montero 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Elias Diaz 0.5 +400 0.5 -750

Rockies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brendan Rodgers 1.5 +130 1.5 -185
Charlie Blackmon 1.5 +130 1.5 -190
Connor Joe 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Elehuris Montero 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Elias Diaz 1.5 +185 1.5 -275

Rockies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brendan Rodgers 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
Charlie Blackmon 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Connor Joe 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Elehuris Montero 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Elias Diaz 0.5 +115 0.5 -165

Rockies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Urena 2.5 -125 2.5 -110
Sean Manaea 4.5 +100 4.5 -145
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 43 away games (+13.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 43 away games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 62 games (+8.10 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 52 games (+5.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 75 games (+7.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 35 games (+4.65 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.25 Units / 34% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 43-44 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -1.15% ROI).

  • 49-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 2.06% ROI
  • 39-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.05 Units / -11.65% ROI
  • 46-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.8 Units / 2.89% ROI

Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 43-43 against the Run Line (-7.05 Units / -6.5% ROI).

  • 38-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -2.48% ROI
  • 41-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -2.47% ROI
  • 39-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.4 Units / -6.78% ROI

Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of .758 (25 Total Bases / 33 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .431 — third Percentile.

Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .190 (16 Total Bases / 84 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .400 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .096 (16-for-167) against Sean Manaea with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .159 — 100th Percentile.

Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .170 (16 Total Bases / 94 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — 100th Percentile.

José Ureña: Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jose Urena has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 8.1 innings pitched — Lucas Gilbreath has the longest active streak at 25.0.

Jose Urena has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to July 17th, 2021 — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 8.

Jose Urena had a strike rate of just 60% (53/89) — 4th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 66% — fifth Percentile.

Jose Urena has a strikeout rate of just 8% (2 SO in 26 PAs) this month (1 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies

The Padres are 6-26 (.188) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Padres are 26-18 (.591) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Padres are 41-11 (.788) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Padres are 16-7 (.696) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Rockies are 26-1 (.963) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .887.

The Rockies are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rockies are just 15-27 (.357) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Rockies are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Padres hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Padres hitters are slugging just .338 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,322 of their 3,970 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .378 at home since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.

The Rockies are batting .280 at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Rockies hitters have an OPS of just .639 (4,528 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Rockies are batting .280 at home since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Rockies hitters are slugging just .348 on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.8

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Padres pitchers this month (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Padres have won 55% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The longest HR allowed by the Rockies pitchers this season traveled 496.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.8

Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Rockies pitchers have walked 67 of 759 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Rockies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Scott Oberg (Rockies): Arm, D60
  • Sean Bouchard (Rockies): Undisclosed, D10
  • Christopher Cron (Rockies): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
  • Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Undisclosed, D15
  • Helcris Olivarez (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
  • José Iglesias (Rockies): Head, Day-to-Day
  • Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Jurickson Profar (Padres): Concussion, D7
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.