Padres vs Rockies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 17, 2022, 9:23 AM
  • The Padres (41-24) are -145 favorites vs the Rockies (27-37)
  • Padres starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (4-2), 2.50 ERA
  • Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland (2-5), 4.38 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet RM

The San Diego Padres (-145) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (+120) on Friday, June 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in Denver.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Padres vs Rockies Over/Under is 12.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 41-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 31-33 ATS.

Padres vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +100O 12.5 -105-145
Rockies +1.5 -120U 12.5 -115+120

Padres vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s matchup with 63.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Rockies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 away games (+7.45 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 14 away games (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.55 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 16 away games (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+5.70 Units / 86% ROI)

Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Randal Grichuk has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Ryan McMahon has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+6.95 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 games at home (+6.15 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Ryan McMahon has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+5.55 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Brendan Rodgers has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+5.40 Units / 26% ROI)

Rockies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brendan Rodgers 0.5 +400 0.5 -700
C.J. Cron 0.5 +290 0.5 -450
Charlie Blackmon 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Connor Joe 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Elias Diaz 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Rockies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brendan Rodgers 1.5 +125 1.5 -175
Charlie Blackmon 1.5 +135 1.5 -190
Connor Joe 1.5 +145 1.5 -200
Elias Diaz 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Jose Iglesias 1.5 +140 1.5 -200

Rockies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brendan Rodgers 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
C.J. Cron 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
Charlie Blackmon 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Connor Joe 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Elias Diaz 0.5 +130 0.5 -190

Rockies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Freeland 3.5 +105 3.5 -150
Mackenzie Gore 4.5 +100 4.5 -145
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 64 games (+13.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 20 away games (+13.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+9.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 30 games (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 49 games (+5.20 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 53 games (+5.10 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+1.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games (+0.20 Units / 2% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 37-28 against the Run Line (+9.3 Units / 11.1% ROI).

  • 41-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.7 Units / 13.04% ROI
  • 29-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -10.73% ROI
  • 34-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.25 Units / 3.1% ROI

Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 31-33 against the Run Line (-8.15 Units / -10.08% ROI).

  • 27-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -7.11% ROI
  • 32-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.15 Units / 0.21% ROI
  • 29-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.5 Units / -9.17% ROI

MacKenzie Gore has not allowed a HR in any of his last eight starts dating back to April 20th — tied with Collin McHugh for the longest active streak among active MLB players.

MacKenzie Gore has not allowed a home run in any of the last 47.2 innings he’s appeared — A.J. Minter has the longest active streak at 67.1.

MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 34% (22 SO in 65 PAs) versus the heart of the order this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 98th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .130 (7 Total Bases / 54 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: .377 — 98th Percentile.

Kyle Freeland: Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Freeland has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (99/185) of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.

10 of Kyle Freeland’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 16 of Kyle Freeland’s 108 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 15%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.

Kyle Freeland has a strikeout rate of just 4% (3 SO in 70 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — sixth Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies

The Padres are 24-11 (.686) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Padres are 33-8 (.805) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Padres are 5-17 (.227) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Padres are just 33-4 (.892) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.

Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Rockies are 19-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .900.

The Rockies are just 11-18 (.379) on the road this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Rockies are just 4-13 (.235) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.

The Rockies are 5-28 (.152) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,238 of their 3,698 plate appearances (34%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Padres are batting .255 on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .239.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .661 (1,096 PA’s) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Rockies hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Rockies hitters have an OPS of just .637 (4,044 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Rockies are batting .278 at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Rockies have an average HR distance of 411.2 feet since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9.

The Padres have won 64% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .182 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

The Padres have won 50% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .146 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.

The longest HR allowed by the Rockies pitchers this season traveled 496.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 453.6

Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% versus the bottom of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Rockies pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Rockies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Garrett Hampson (Rockies): COVID-19, D10
  • Kristopher Bryant (Rockies): Back, D10
  • Scott Oberg (Rockies): Arm, D60
  • Tyson Blach (Rockies): Wrist, D15
  • Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D15
  • Helcris Olivarez (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Undisclosed, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D10
  • Michael Clevinger (Padres): COVID-19, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.