Padres vs Rockies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 25, 2022, 11:50 AM
  • The Rockies (65-87) are +125 underdogs vs the Padres (84-68)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Michael Clevinger (6-7), 4.22 ERA
  • Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland (9-10), 4.38 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The San Diego Padres (-150) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (+125) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Denver.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at 1.5 (+100).

The Padres vs Rockies Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 84-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 81-70 ATS.

Padres vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +100O 10.5 -115-150
Rockies +1.5 -120U 10.5 -105+125

Padres vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Rockies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 33 games (+13.05 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.90 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 58 away games (+11.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 57 games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • German Marquez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Brendan Rodgers has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Yonathan Daza has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.95 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Kyle Freeland has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Yonathan Daza has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+10.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 away games (+10.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 64 away games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.45 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.90 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+11.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 games at home (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 67-85 against the Run Line (-24.05 Units / -12.73% ROI).

  • 84-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.9 Units / -4.73% ROI
  • 71-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.95 Units / -7.77% ROI
  • 77-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -0.56% ROI

Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 81-70 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 1.77% ROI).

  • 64-87 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -2.42% ROI
  • 69-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.5 Units / -8.67% ROI
  • 75-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -0.76% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .190 (8-for-42) against Mike Clevinger on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .336 — 99th Percentile.

Mike Clevinger has not struck out a hitter in his last 32 PAs against a RHH dating back to September 9th — Adrian Houser has the longest active streak at 46.

Opponents are hitting just .239 (17-for-71) against Mike Clevinger when he’s behind in the count this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .334 — 95th Percentile.

Mike Clevinger has allowed a slugging percentage of .674 (31 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .429 — sixth Percentile.

Kyle Freeland: Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

27 of Kyle Freeland’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.

Kyle Freeland has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (258/475) of opposing batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 46 of Kyle Freeland’s 260 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 18%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.

Kyle Freeland has a strike rate of just 62% (1,314/2,110) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies

The Padres are 20-2 (.909) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.

The Padres are 29-9 (.763) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Padres are 67-7 (.905) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.

The Padres are 69-22 (.758) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Rockies are just 24-48 (.333) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.

The Rockies are just 14-32 (.304) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rockies are just 9-15 (.375) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rockies are just 14-41 (.255) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

The Padres are batting just .229 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Padres are batting just .143 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.

Padres hitters are slugging .227 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Rockies hitters have an OPS of just .632 (5,629 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Rockies are batting .281 at home since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Rockies are batting .311 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.

The Rockies are batting .281 at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Padres pitchers have walked 80 of 1,348 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers this month (19 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The average home run distance against the Rockies pitchers since the start of last season is 408.0 feet — highest in MLB; League Avg: 399.4

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Rockies pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The longest HR allowed by the Rockies pitchers this season traveled 498.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 462.9

Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Rockies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): ACL, D15
  • Scott Oberg (Rockies): Arm, D60
  • Brendan Rodgers (Rockies): Hamstring, D10
  • José Iglesias (Rockies): Hand, D10
  • Kristopher Bryant (Rockies): Foot, D10
  • Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): Elbow, D15
  • Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Cron (Rockies): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Helcris Olivarez (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.