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Padres vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 26

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 26, 2022, 9:03 AM
  • The Padres (68-58) are -190 favorites vs the Royals (51-75)
  • Padres starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: , ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The San Diego Padres (-190) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+155) on Friday, August 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Padres vs Royals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 66-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 58-65 ATS.

Padres vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 -115O 8.5 -110-190
Royals +1.5 -105U 8.5 -110+155

Padres vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s matchup with 60.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.

Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Royals vs Padres and all MLB games with BetMGM

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 43 away games (+21.05 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 21 away games (+19.40 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 29 away games (+17.75 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 53 games (+16.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 52 games (+15.00 Units / 28% ROI)
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    Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 54 of his last 84 games (+12.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)
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  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 56 of their last 101 games (+14.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 45 away games (+3.35 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 62 away games (+2.95 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 15 away games (+2.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.35 Units / 11% ROI)
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  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 72 games (+18.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+12.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+10.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 47 games at home (+6.20 Units / 12% ROI)
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    Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 56-67 against the Run Line (-14.2 Units / -9.35% ROI).

    • 66-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.9 Units / -6.53% ROI
    • 57-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.35 Units / -8.46% ROI
    • 63-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -0.15% ROI

    Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 58-65 against the Run Line (-18.75 Units / -11.64% ROI).

    • 51-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.2 Units / -7.03% ROI
    • 61-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -2% ROI
    • 58-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.4 Units / -6.91% ROI

    Opponents are hitting just .185 (41-for-222) against Yu Darvish’s non-fastballs this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 86th Percentile.

    Yu Darvish has walked 11 of 281 right-handed batters (4%) this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 89th Percentile.

    Opponents are hitting just .095 (6-for-63) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.

    Yu Darvish has a strike rate of 70% (484/688) in two strike counts this season — tied for 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 89th Percentile.

    : Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Kris Bubic has allowed an OPS of 1.084 (372 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: .763 — first Percentile.

    Opponents are hitting .398 (33-for-83) against Kris Bubic when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .261 — first Percentile.

    Kris Bubic has allowed an OBP of .430 (165 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .319 — first Percentile.

    Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (231/1,367) against Kris Bubic in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

    Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

    The Padres are 22-8 (.733) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

    The Padres are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

    The Padres are 33-30 (.524) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

    The Padres are just 7-136 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

    Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

    The Royals are just 3-33 (.083) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

    The Royals are just 2-59 (.033) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.

    The Royals are just 39-7 (.848) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.

    The Royals are just 51-64 (.443) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

    Padres hitters have drawn 79 walks in 660 PA’s (12%) against RHP this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Padres hitters have drawn 60 walks in 472 PA’s (13%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Padres hitters have drawn 318 walks in 3,346 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

    Royals hitters have just 571 strikeouts in 2,933 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Royals hitters have an OPS of just .979 (2,055 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.085.

    The Royals are batting just .169 on the road this month (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.

    Royals hitters are slugging just .260 on the road this month (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .381.

    Padres pitchers have walked 44 of 851 batters (5%) this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.6

    Padres pitchers have walked 67 of 1,126 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

    Padres pitchers have won 39% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

    The Royals have allowed 1.79 runs per game (225/126) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.

    Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

    Royals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

    Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Royals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathan Heasley (Royals): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
  • Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D10
  • Donald Greinke (Royals): Forearm, D15
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  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Juan Soto (Padres): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
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    About the Author

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

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