- The Padres (69-58) are -225 favorites vs the Royals (51-76)
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (10-7), 3.39 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Daniel A. Lynch (4-8), 4.57 ERA
- Watch the game on BSKC
The San Diego Padres (-225) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+180) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Padres vs Royals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 67-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 58-66 ATS.
Padres vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -110 | -225 |
| Royals | +1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -110 | +180 |
Padres vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s matchup with 60.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 44 away games (+19.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 22 away games (+18.40 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 54 games (+17.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 53 games (+16.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 30 away games (+15.40 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 55 of his last 85 games (+13.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+9.30 Units / 85% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 56 of their last 102 games (+13.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 63 away games (+3.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 away games (+3.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 away games (+2.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 73 games (+17.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games at home (+10.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+9.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+9.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games at home (+7.20 Units / 14% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 57-67 against the Run Line (-13.2 Units / -8.62% ROI).
- 67-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.9 Units / -5.92% ROI
- 58-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -7.66% ROI
- 63-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -1.01% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 58-66 against the Run Line (-19.75 Units / -12.18% ROI).
- 51-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -7.73% ROI
- 62-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.7 Units / -1.25% ROI
- 58-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.6 Units / -7.72% ROI
Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 11% (9/80) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .185 (41-for-222) against Yu Darvish’s non-fastballs this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 86th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has walked 11 of 281 right-handed batters (4%) this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 89th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .201 (63 Total Bases / 313 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — 84th Percentile.
Daniel A. Lynch: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .469 (23-for-49) against Daniel Lynch on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .333 — first Percentile.
Daniel Lynch has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.4 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (118 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 87.9
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (32/98) against Daniel Lynch on breaking pitches this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Daniel Lynch has allowed a slugging percentage of .857 (42 Total Bases / 49 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .560 — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Padres are 6-41 (.128) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Padres are 23-8 (.742) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.
The Padres are 34-30 (.531) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Padres are 24-6 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Royals are just 3-34 (.081) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.
The Royals are just 39-7 (.848) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Royals are just 10-33 (.233) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Royals are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .328 (2,551 PA’s) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
The Padres are batting just .231 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,510 of their 4,600 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 575 strikeouts in 2,944 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .977 (2,065 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.085.
Royals hitters are slugging just .260 on the road this month (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Royals hitters have just 247 strikeouts in 1,251 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .190 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.6
Padres pitchers have walked 46 of 892 batters (5%) this month (24 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals pitchers have walked 480 of 4,920 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Royals have allowed 1.82 runs per game (231/127) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Royals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Heasley (Royals): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D10
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, D10
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Juan Soto (Padres): Back, Day-to-Day
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
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