Padres vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 27, 2022, 9:29 AM
  • The Padres (69-58) are -225 favorites vs the Royals (51-76)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (10-7), 3.39 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Daniel A. Lynch (4-8), 4.57 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The San Diego Padres (-225) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+180) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).

The Padres vs Royals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 67-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 58-66 ATS.

Padres vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 -135O 8.5 -110-225
Royals +1.5 +110U 8.5 -110+180

Padres vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s matchup with 60.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Royals vs Padres and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 44 away games (+19.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 22 away games (+18.40 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 54 games (+17.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 53 games (+16.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 30 away games (+15.40 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 55 of his last 85 games (+13.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Nick Pratto has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+9.30 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 56 of their last 102 games (+13.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 63 away games (+3.95 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 away games (+3.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 away games (+2.75 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 73 games (+17.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games at home (+10.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+9.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+9.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games at home (+7.20 Units / 14% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 57-67 against the Run Line (-13.2 Units / -8.62% ROI).

  • 67-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.9 Units / -5.92% ROI
  • 58-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -7.66% ROI
  • 63-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -1.01% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 58-66 against the Run Line (-19.75 Units / -12.18% ROI).

  • 51-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -7.73% ROI
  • 62-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.7 Units / -1.25% ROI
  • 58-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.6 Units / -7.72% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 11% (9/80) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .185 (41-for-222) against Yu Darvish’s non-fastballs this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 86th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has walked 11 of 281 right-handed batters (4%) this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 89th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .201 (63 Total Bases / 313 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — 84th Percentile.

Daniel A. Lynch: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .469 (23-for-49) against Daniel Lynch on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .333 — first Percentile.

Daniel Lynch has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.4 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (118 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 87.9

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (32/98) against Daniel Lynch on breaking pitches this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.

Daniel Lynch has allowed a slugging percentage of .857 (42 Total Bases / 49 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .560 — first Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Padres are 6-41 (.128) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Padres are 23-8 (.742) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.

The Padres are 34-30 (.531) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Padres are 24-6 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Royals are just 3-34 (.081) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.

The Royals are just 39-7 (.848) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Royals are just 10-33 (.233) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Royals are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have an OBP of .328 (2,551 PA’s) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .308.

The Padres are batting just .231 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,510 of their 4,600 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Royals hitters have just 575 strikeouts in 2,944 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .977 (2,065 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.085.

Royals hitters are slugging just .260 on the road this month (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .385.

Royals hitters have just 247 strikeouts in 1,251 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .190 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.6

Padres pitchers have walked 46 of 892 batters (5%) this month (24 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Royals pitchers have walked 480 of 4,920 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Royals have allowed 1.82 runs per game (231/127) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.

Royals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathan Heasley (Royals): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
  • Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D10
  • Donald Greinke (Royals): Forearm, D15
  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Juan Soto (Padres): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.