Padres vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 28, 2022, 9:52 AM
  • The Padres (70-58) are -190 favorites vs the Royals (51-77)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (7-6), 4.63 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (1-7), 5.20 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The San Diego Padres (-190) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+155) on Sunday, August 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Padres vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 68-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 59-66 ATS.

Padres vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 -120O 9.5 -115-190
Royals +1.5 +100U 9.5 -105+155

Padres vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s matchup with 58.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+19.40 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 45 away games (+18.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 54 games (+17.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 31 away games (+16.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 55 games (+16.40 Units / 18% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 55 of his last 86 games (+11.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+11.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Nick Pratto has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+9.70 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 56 of their last 103 games (+12.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 47 away games (+3.15 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.05 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 74 games (+16.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 19 of their last 35 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games at home (+2.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.95 Units / 26% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 57-68 against the Run Line (-14.55 Units / -9.42% ROI).

  • 68-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.9 Units / -5.31% ROI
  • 58-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.5 Units / -8.44% ROI
  • 64-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -0.29% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 59-66 against the Run Line (-18.6 Units / -11.4% ROI).

  • 51-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.2 Units / -8.42% ROI
  • 62-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -2.08% ROI
  • 59-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.6 Units / -6.94% ROI

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 18% (27/152) against Sean Manaea when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.

Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of .467 (99 Total Bases / 212 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .347 — first Percentile.

Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of .885 (69 Total Bases / 78 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .575 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .122 (30-for-245) against Sean Manaea with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .159 — 94th Percentile.

Jonathan Heasley: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 57% (332/586) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Jon Heasley has allowed a slugging percentage of .635 (33 Total Bases / 52 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .371 — second Percentile.

Jon Heasley has allowed a slugging percentage of .568 (71 Total Bases / 125 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .382 — third Percentile.

Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 57% (171/300) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Padres are 35-30 (.538) on the road this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Padres are 23-8 (.742) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Padres are 57-20 (.740) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Padres are 6-41 (.128) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Royals are just 3-34 (.081) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

The Royals are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Royals are just 6-55 (.098) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.

The Royals are just 2-61 (.032) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Padres hitters have an OBP of .345 (618 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .324.

Padres hitters have chased 22% of pitches out of the zone over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .483 (346 PA’s) on the road this month (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .687.

Royals hitters are averaging just 3.79 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .669 (3,487 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Royals are batting just .169 on the road this month (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.

Padres pitchers have walked 67 of 1,144 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Padres have won 43% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Padres pitchers have walked 22 of 438 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres pitchers have walked 9 of 186 batters (5%) over the past seven days (5 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Royals have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Royals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

Royals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathan Heasley (Royals): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
  • Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D10
  • Donald Greinke (Royals): Forearm, D15
  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.