- The Royals are -125 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Jason Groome, 0.00 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles, 3.60 ERA
The San Diego Padres (+105) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-125) on Friday, March 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Surprise.
The Royals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Padres vs Royals Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Padres are 4-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 9-1 ATS.
Padres vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -175 | O 11 -105 | +105 |
| Royals | -1.5 +145 | U 11 -115 | -125 |
Padres vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Royals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+3.50 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Wil Myers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 away games (+1.15 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sebastian Rivero has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+0.85 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 away games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+18.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 108 games (+15.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+13.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 43 games at home (+12.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 5-6 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -9.26% ROI).
- 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -30.19% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -20.65% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 15.61% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 9-1 against the Run Line (+9.15 Units / 66.07% ROI).
- 9-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 72.05% ROI
- 7-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.85 Units / 43.89% ROI
- 2-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -50.45% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jay Groome is making his MLB debut today.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (151 Total Bases / 362 ABs) with two-strikes last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .243 (88-for-362) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles had a strike rate of just 60% (540/893) in two strike counts last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (151 Total Bases / 362 ABs) with two-strikes last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .264 — 0 Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Padres are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Royals are just 4-41 (.089) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Royals are just 3-77 (.038) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Royals are just 26-55 (.321) on the road last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Royals are 10-5 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Padres batted just .230 at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 642 strikeouts in 3,264 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 32% on the road last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Royals hitters slugged just .368 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .991 (2,308 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have walked 1,180 of 12,376 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The average home run distance against the Royals pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 405.4 feet — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Royals pitchers threw at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Royals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kansas City Royals – No Injuries Reported
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
Bet now on Padres vs Royals and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
