- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Tigers
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Tigers starting pitcher: Reese Olson
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The San Diego Padres (-145) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+120) on Friday, July 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Padres vs Tigers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 46-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 50-46 ATS.
Padres vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +110 | O 9 -115 | -145 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -135 | U 9 -105 | +120 |
Padres vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 66.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+15.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+15.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+12.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.65 Units / 59% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 72% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 25 games at home (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+18.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+13.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+11.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- Zack Short has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.45 Units / 49% ROI)
Tigers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Vierling | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Zach McKinstry | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Tigers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Vierling | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Manny Machado | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Tigers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Vierling | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Zach McKinstry | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Tigers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Reese Olson | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Seth Lugo | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 87 games (+13.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 90 games (+12.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 43 games (+9.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+5.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 85 games (+10.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 73 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 games (+7.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 86 games (+5.95 Units / 6% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 48-49 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -3.63% ROI).
- 46-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.4 Units / -16.68% ROI
- 39-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.1 Units / -16.69% ROI
- 51-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.8 Units / 8.36% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 50-46 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -1.56% ROI).
- 44-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 5.82% ROI
- 50-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.45 Units / 2.3% ROI
- 43-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.3 Units / -10.79% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (472/1,033) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .165 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for ninth best among qualified RPs)– 91st Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (118/258) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (284/822) in non-two strike counts this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 95th Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reese Olson has allowed an OBP of just .252 (155 PA’s) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .314 — 98th Percentile.
Lance Lynn allowed a slugging percentage of .691 (38 Total Bases / 55 ABs) on low fastballs in 2022 — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .429 — fourth Percentile.
Reese Olson has not allowed a walk in his last 82 PAs against a RHH dating back to June 2nd — Austin Gomber has the longest active streak at 123.
Lance Lynn had a strikeout rate of 42% (55/131) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs in 2022 — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 10-91 (.099) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Padres are just 5-22 (.185) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Padres are just 5-98 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Tigers are just 27-40 (.403) after a home loss since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Tigers are just 18-70 (.205) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Tigers are just 17-102 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Tigers are 16-6 (.727) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .587.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres are batting just .230 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres hitters have drawn 298 walks in 2,592 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .284 (7,127 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .621 (2,981 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .692.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .354 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .286 (3,670 PA’s) versus relief pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,339 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.39 (436.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .227.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 271 of 3,599 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 63% of their games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Tigers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- William Vest (Tigers): Leg, D15
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
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