- The Padres are -135 favorites vs the Tigers
- Padres starting pitcher: –
- Tigers starting pitcher: Matthew Manning
- Watch the game on BSDET
The San Diego Padres (-135) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+115) on Saturday, July 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Detroit.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Padres vs Tigers Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 47-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 51-46 ATS.
Padres vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +110 | O 10 -115 | -135 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -135 | U 10 -105 | +115 |
Padres vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 64.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+14.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+13.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+11.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.65 Units / 59% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+19.40 Units / 64% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 25 games at home (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Zack Short has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.45 Units / 49% ROI)
Tigers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Tigers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Manny Machado | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -190 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.5 +120 | 1.5 -155 |
Tigers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Trent Grisham | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Manny Machado | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
Tigers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Manning | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 88 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 91 games (+12.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 44 games (+10.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games (+6.85 Units / 12% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 86 games (+9.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 74 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 87 games (+6.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 31 games (+6.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 48-50 against the Run Line (-5.35 Units / -4.43% ROI).
- 47-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.4 Units / -15.81% ROI
- 39-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.1 Units / -16.54% ROI
- 51-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.8 Units / 8.27% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 51-46 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -0.71% ROI).
- 44-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.05 Units / 4.81% ROI
- 50-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.45 Units / 2.28% ROI
- 43-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.3 Units / -10.67% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 39% (154/399) against Joe Musgrove this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 33 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from Joe Musgrove. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 49% (139/286) against Joe Musgrove with two-strikes this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 97th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 15.0 innings pitched — Josh Hader has the longest active streak at 21.1.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Manning has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 14.0 innings pitched — Josh Hader has the longest active streak at 21.1.
Matt Manning has allowed an OPS of just .289 (43 PA’s) — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .733 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .103 (4-for-39) against Matt Manning — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .241 — 97th Percentile.
Matt Manning has allowed a slugging percentage of just .187 (14 Total Bases / 75 ABs) over the last 30 days (4 games) — best among in MLB; League Avg: .396 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 3-37 (.075) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Padres are just 5-98 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Padres are just 6-17 (.261) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Tigers are just 8-12 (.400) after a road win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Tigers are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Tigers are just 106-130 (.449) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Tigers are 16-6 (.727) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .587.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .231 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Padres are batting just .296 in hitter’s counts this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres are batting just .198 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters are slugging just .342 against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .626 (7,161 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .286 (3,681 PA’s) versus relief pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .645 (9,511 PA’s) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,361 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 273 of 3,637 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 62% of their games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- William Vest (Tigers): Leg, D15
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
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