- The – are favorites vs the –
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Tigers starting pitcher: Alexander Faedo
- Watch the game on Peacock
The San Diego Padres () visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers () on Sunday, July 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Detroit.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Padres vs Tigers Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 48-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 51-47 ATS.
Padres vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | O | ||
| Tigers | U |
Padres vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 83.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Tigers and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+12.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+12.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.65 Units / 59% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.65 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 25 games at home (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+18.05 Units / 61% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+13.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+10.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eduardo Rodriguez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.40 Units / 69% ROI)
Tigers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Tigers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Tigers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Tigers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
| Alex Faedo | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+11.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 92 games (+10.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 75 games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 87 games (+8.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 88 games (+5.60 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.65 Units / 21% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 49-50 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -3.45% ROI).
- 48-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.4 Units / -14.95% ROI
- 40-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.1 Units / -15.48% ROI
- 51-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.65 Units / 7.11% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 51-47 against the Run Line (-2.2 Units / -1.82% ROI).
- 44-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.05 Units / 3.82% ROI
- 51-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.45 Units / 3.17% ROI
- 43-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.45 Units / -11.63% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 15.0 innings pitched — Josh Hader has the longest active streak at 21.1.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 39% (154/399) against Joe Musgrove this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 37% (264/709) against Joe Musgrove this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 33 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from Joe Musgrove. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Padres are just 8-44 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Padres are just 3-37 (.075) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .146.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Tigers are 16-6 (.727) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Tigers are just 35-3 (.921) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Tigers are just 17-104 (.140) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Tigers are just 44-81 (.352) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 95 walks in 880 PA’s (11%) when leading off an inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres have won 88% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 70%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have drawn 305 walks in 2,668 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .626 (7,173 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .620 (3,001 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .692.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .285 (3,696 PA’s) versus relief pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .284 (7,173 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,385 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
The Padres have allowed 3.69 runs per game (177/48) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.62.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 40% of their games this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 278 of 3,686 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Tigers have won just 26% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Tigers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- William Vest (Tigers): Leg, D15
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Alek Jacob (Padres): July, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
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