- The – are favorites vs the –
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres () visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins () on Thursday, May 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Padres vs Twins Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 19-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 19-18 ATS.
Padres vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | O | ||
| Twins | U |
Padres vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+11.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+7.95 Units / 68% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+15.50 Units / 53% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+14.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.65 Units / 45% ROI)
Twins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Twins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Twins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Twins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -115 |
| Bailey Ober | 5.5 +145 | 5.5 -190 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 away games (+7.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 96% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+4.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.95 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 20-17 against the Run Line (-0.7 Units / -1.4% ROI).
- 19-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -9.67% ROI
- 13-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.9 Units / -28.5% ROI
- 22-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.05 Units / 20.18% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 19-18 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 2.18% ROI).
- 20-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -5.85% ROI
- 14-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.3 Units / -20.12% ROI
- 20-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.75 Units / 11.73% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of .450 (18 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 32% (33/102) against Yu Darvish this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 94th Percentile.
5 of Yu Darvish’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 6th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 92nd Percentile.
Yu Darvish has a strikeout rate of 40% (16 SO in 40 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 98th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 81% of the time (105/130) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (8/32) against Bailey Ober — tied for 5th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of just .210 (13 Total Bases / 62 ABs) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .422 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .161 (10-for-62) against Bailey Ober this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .254 — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Padres are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Padres are 21-31 (.404) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Padres are 27-3 (.900) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 15-2 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Twins are just 5-18 (.217) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 13-34 (.277) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 24-48 (.333) when underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .207 on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Padres are batting just .213 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Padres hitters have drawn 527 walks in 5,284 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .114 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (272 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Twins hitters have 77 strikeouts in 272 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Twins are just 5-18 (.217) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres pitchers are throwing 4.05 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Padres have won 37% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Lower Body, Day-to-Day
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- José Azocar (Padres): Elbow Inflammation, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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