- The Padres are -115 favorites vs the Yankees
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Yankees starting pitcher: Randy Vásquez
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The San Diego Padres (-115) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-105) on Friday, May 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Padres vs Yankees Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 23-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 28-24 ATS.
Padres vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +140 | O 9 +100 | -115 |
| Yankees | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -120 | -105 |
Padres vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 56.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+11.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+11.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 away games (+11.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 74% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 48 games (+11.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+9.80 Units / 52% ROI)
Yankees vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Yankees vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Yankees vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Yankees vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+17.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+14.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+3.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.35 Units / 4% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.80 Units / 70% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 50 games (+3.85 Units / 7% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 24-26 against the Run Line (-7.4 Units / -11.35% ROI).
- 23-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.3 Units / -19.42% ROI
- 16-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.35 Units / -36.05% ROI
- 32-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.7 Units / 27.32% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 28-24 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 8.36% ROI).
- 30-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.6 Units / 6.38% ROI
- 24-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.65 Units / -9.89% ROI
- 27-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 0.96% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .273 (21-for-77) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: .341 — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents batted just .250 (17-for-68) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — 95th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.8 MPH against his fastballs since last season (204 balls in play) — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 90.4
Joe Musgrove has walked 7 of 247 batters (3%) versus the bottom of the order since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Padres are 4-4 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Padres are 56-48 (.538) on the road since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Padres are 9-1 (.900) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Padres are just 5-25 (.167) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Yankees are 25-39 (.391) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 14-56 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Yankees are 9-7 (.562) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 156 walks in 1,274 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.12 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Padres are batting just .224 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Padres are batting just .208 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 51 walks in 429 PA’s (12%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 213 walks in 1,978 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .288 with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Yankees hitters have drawn 402 walks in 3,878 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (1,223 batted balls) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 95 times this season — fewest in MLB.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Yankees pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Yankees pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 41% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Ha-Seong Kim (Padres): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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