- The – are favorites vs the –
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres () visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees () on Saturday, May 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Padres vs Yankees Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 24-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 28-25 ATS.
Padres vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | O | ||
| Yankees | U |
Padres vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 68.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Yankees and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 away games (+12.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+12.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+10.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 74% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 away games (+9.30 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+13.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 39% ROI)
Yankees vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Yankees vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Yankees vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Michael Wacha | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 44 games (+18.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+4.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.65 Units / 70% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.55 Units / 32% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 51 games (+2.55 Units / 4% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 25-26 against the Run Line (-6 Units / -9.06% ROI).
- 24-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.3 Units / -17.78% ROI
- 16-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.5 Units / -37.33% ROI
- 33-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.7 Units / 28.62% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 28-25 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 5.59% ROI).
- 30-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 4.86% ROI
- 24-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.8 Units / -11.67% ROI
- 28-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.55 Units / 2.65% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (15/60) against Michael Wacha this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
The last hit on a Michael Wacha fastball was May 9th. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his fastball. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 46% of the time (124/270) with two-strikes this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .250 (6-for-24) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .348 — 88th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The last hit on a Luis Severino changeup was September 21st, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Jovani Moran has the longest active streak at 25.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (8/61) against Luis Severino on elevated fastballs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .197 (76-for-385) against Luis Severino since last season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 94th Percentile.
81% of Luis Severino’s called strikeouts are low against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 99th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Padres are just 2-22 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Padres are 4-4 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Padres are 28-4 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 22-31 (.415) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Yankees are 25-40 (.385) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Yankees are 9-7 (.562) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .210 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres hitters have drawn 160 walks in 1,316 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .205 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have 6 strikeouts in 12 PA’s (50%) against LHP over the past seven days (3 games) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 213 walks in 1,981 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Games involving the Yankees have hit UNDER in 83% of their games (57.8% ROI) after a home loss this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Yankees are batting just .216 with two outs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 31% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (1,251 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games on the road since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Yankees vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Luis GarcÃa (Padres): Oblique, D15
- Xander Bogaerts (Padres): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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