- The Yankees are -140 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole
- Watch the game on YES
The San Diego Padres (+115) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-140) on Sunday, May 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Padres vs Yankees Over/Under is 13 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 24-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 28-26 ATS.
Padres vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -185 | O 13 -1000 | +115 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +150 | U 13 +650 | -140 |
Padres vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 67.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+13.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+13.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+11.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.55 Units / 78% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 19 away games (+10.30 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+14.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+10.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Yankees vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Yankees vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Yankees vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Yankees vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Gerrit Cole | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -120 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 45 games (+19.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 42 games (+14.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.65 Units / 69% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 52 games (+1.30 Units / 2% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 26-26 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -7.39% ROI).
- 24-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.3 Units / -18.87% ROI
- 16-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.55 Units / -38.45% ROI
- 34-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.7 Units / 29.82% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 28-26 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 3.93% ROI).
- 31-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 6.1% ROI
- 24-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.85 Units / -13.24% ROI
- 29-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.55 Units / 4.27% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
6 of Yu Darvish’s 21 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) have been backdoor this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 91st Percentile.
6 of Yu Darvish’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 8th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 89th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 57% of the time (100/176) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 18% (4/22) against Yu Darvish on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
59% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has struck out 34% (164/486) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has allowed an OPS of just .562 (131 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .711 — 88th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has allowed a slugging percentage of just .293 (34 Total Bases / 116 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .396 — 87th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Padres are 4-4 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Padres are just 2-22 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Padres are 28-4 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Padres are just 5-26 (.161) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Yankees are 25-40 (.385) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 9-7 (.562) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Yankees are 63-28 (.692) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 164 walks in 1,349 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .205 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Padres are batting just .205 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Padres are batting just .222 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have 11 strikeouts in 27 PA’s (41%) against LHP over the last 14 days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 213 walks in 1,981 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have 6 strikeouts in 9 PA’s (67%) against LHP over the past seven days (2 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Games involving the Yankees have hit UNDER in 85% of their games (60.2% ROI) after a home loss this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 95 times this season — fewest in MLB.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (1,274 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers won 56% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Juan Soto (Padres): Back, Day-to-Day
- Luis GarcÃa (Padres): Oblique, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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